October 15 2024

Russia’s transport of oil using its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and ships that operate outside regular international shipping regulations has increased from 2.4 million barrels per day in June 2023 to 4.1 million in June 2024. This increase occurs despite increased sanctions from Western nations. The shadow fleet now carries 70% of Russian oil products that are transported by sea; this amounts to 89% of Russia’s crude oil exports and 39% of its refined petroleum product exports. These ships are often poorly maintained and uninsured and pose dangers to the environment and other ships near them.


The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet on October 17 as part of a NATO defense ministers' meeting. This meeting is being held to improve cooperation between Kyiv and NATO. The last meeting was in late August 2024, where members condemned Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and pledged to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities.


Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to President Zelenskyy, announced that the President will soon unveil the Victory Plan for Ukraine. While the general ideas have been shared, specific details have yet to be released. The plan includes political, diplomatic, economic, and military actions all working together. Podolyak said the plan involves increased supplies of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, along with permission to strike military targets in Russia. The plan will be fully released in the coming days.


The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration provided Ukrainian soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia area over $1 million worth of military equipment last week. This equipment includes FPV drones, Mavic drones of various models, hexacopters, recon UAVs, electronic warfare equipment, autonomous charging stations, generators, inverters, laptops, tablets, TVs, network analyzers, remote antennas, and Starlink satellite modems.


For the first time in 48 days, Russia did not launch a single Shahed drone at Ukraine on October 14.

On the night leading into the 15th, Russia launched an overnight attack on Ukraine with 17 shaheds, seven S-300/400 missiles targeting Mykolaiv, and two Kh-59 guided missiles aimed at Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. Ukrainian forces shot down 12 of the drones, while four disappeared from radar and one remained unaccounted for at the time of the report by the Ukrainian Air Force.

On October 13, Russian forces killed four people and injured three others in the Donetsk region, according to Vadym Filashkin, Chief of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration. The casualties included two in Chasiv Yar, one in Zvanivka, and one in Vyshneve. Total civilian casualties in the region now stand at 2,816 killed and 6,292 injured, not including Mariupol and Volnovakha.

Over the past week, 535 people, including 143 children, have been evacuated from border communities in the Sumy region of Ukraine. A total of 36,804 people, including 6,469 children, have been evacuated from settlements near the Sumy border. Mandatory evacuations are ongoing with nearly 500 children expected to be evacuated.

Russia attacked Kherson with artillery on October 14 and damaged an office of the Ukrainian Red Cross. The artillery strike broke windows, damaged window frames, and three cars, but no staff or volunteers were injured.
In another shelling of the city of Kherson, two elderly women were killed and another was injured. The attack hit a residential building in the Dniprovskyi district,

A 34-year-old man was killed in a Russian drone attack in the Kherson region while riding a moped along the Novodmytrivka-Kizomys road. The Kherson Regional Military Administration confirmed that the man died from his injuries at the scene. There was a separate attack in Beryslav, where two others were injured in a Russian drone strike.

Ukraine has repatriated a total of 217 children from Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast to Ukrainian-controlled territory in 2024. According to the Head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration Oleksandr Prokudin, 212 of these kids have been recovered since the start of 2024.

On the night of October 14-15, the Russian military targeted Mykolaiv with missiles, resulting in one death and 23 people being injured. The attack damaged infrastructure, including a restaurant and residential buildings, and ignited fires. The missiles used were reported to be S-300 air defense missiles converted to function as ballistic missiles.


President Zelenskyy reported that North Korean soldiers have joined the Russian Armed Forces. He said on his official Telegram page that North Korea's support now includes not just weapons like ballistic missiles and ammunition but also military personnel. Russia is reportedly using North Korean soldiers and personnel in non-frontline roles.

The Guardian reported some Korean military personnel were helping to operate North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles and some engineers were deployed to Donbas where they serviced artillery shells provided by North Korea. The Washington Post noted that several thousand soldiers are training in Russia, potentially to be deployed by the end of the year. There is speculation that these troops might act as border guards, allowing Russian forces to be redeployed to active combat zones in Ukraine.

A "special Buryat battalion" comprising North Korean citizens is being formed within the Russian army, with an estimated strength of up to 3,000 personnel. Currently, efforts are underway to equip the battalion with small arms and ammunition, and it may soon engage in combat near Sudzha and Kursk. Putin has submitted a draft treaty for ratification that establishes a "comprehensive strategic partnership" between Russia and North Korea, which includes mutual military support in case of armed attacks.

The Kyiv Post, citing its own sources in Ukrainian intelligence, claimed that 18 North Koreans have deserted the Russian army already.

The Kyiv Post:
“Search is ongoing in Russia's Bryansk region after 18 North Korean soldiers escaped 7km from the border of Ukraine.”

In the past week, Ukrainian sappers removed and destroyed 2,246 explosive objects and inspected 3,400 hectares of land, mostly in the Kherson region. Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, they have removed 199,520 explosives and cleared 150,243 hectares. In September 2024, sappers cleared over 30,500 hectares of agricultural land, 50% more land than they cleared over the previous month.


Ukrainian forces captured two Crimeans in the Kursk region who had joined Russia's military after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. The Sumy Regional Prosecutor’s Office has charged them with high treason and said they were involved in battles in the Kherson region and later in the Kursk region. The men were members of the 810th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade when captured.


Soldiers from the 3rd Brigade of the Spartan Operational Task Force destroyed three Russian BMP-2s and a group of Russian marines near the village of Zhuravlyovka, Belgorod as they headed toward the Ukrainian border. The attack was confirmed and geolocated by OSINT analysts. In addition to the vehicles being destroyed, drones dropped explosives on Russian infantry. The Russians' losses included deaths and wounds, but there is also a report from Yuriy Butusov that Russian troops from the 155th Marine Brigade were captured. He published a photo showing 4 POWs.


Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that Hungary and Gazprom are negotiating additional gas purchases for 2025. A memorandum of understanding was signed on 10 October. Szijjártó mentioned that Hungary has already secured extra gas for the last quarter of this year at favorable prices and is now discussing an agreement for next year. The plan includes using the full capacity of the Turkstream pipeline to increase gas imports. In August he said that Hungary's energy security relies on Russian gas.

Energy ministers from EU countries will meet on 15 October to discuss imports of Russian natural gas. The gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine expires on 31 December. The meeting will focus on the region's energy security for winter, with discussions on replacing Russian gas supplies. Negotiations on alternative transit flows are ongoing, but no agreement seems to be nearing finalization, and a decision may not come until early next year. One option is to replace Russian gas with Azerbaijani gas, though this could end up being essentially little more than a plan to launder Russian gas, due to Azerbaijan’s low reserves. Europe would need to import 10-11 billion cubic meters of gas to make importation from Azerbaijan profitable. For Slovakia and Austria, switching suppliers could lead to higher gas prices.


The Trade Committee of the European Parliament has approved a proposal to provide Ukraine with a loan of up to €35 billion as part of the G7's support initiative, voting 31 in favor and 4 against. This Macro-Financial Assistance loan aims to help provide Ukraine with urgent financial shortfalls. The loan will be repaid using revenues from frozen Russian Central Bank assets. The MFA loan is flexible, allowing Ukraine to allocate the funds as needed, and it comes with conditions related to Ukraine maintaining specific aspects of democratic government and human rights. The European Parliament is set to vote on this proposal in late October.


The IMF has announced a decision to reduce fees on national debt payments, benefiting countries like Ukraine. Starting in November, charges and surcharges will decrease. The IMF hopes this change alleviates financial pressures on countries receiving IMF assistance amid high global interest rates. Ukraine expects to save approximately $130 million annually, totaling $650-700 million over the next five years.


Friedrich Merz, a German opposition candidate for chancellor, expressed a willingness to supply Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine, but with conditions. He suggested first appealing to Putin to stop attacks on civilians and if he doesn’t, Ukraine should be given permission to freely use long-range weapons inside of Russian territory.


The EU’s foreign ministers have agreed to extend the EU Training Mission for the Ukrainian military for another two years. The program was launched in October 2022 and has trained 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers so far. The troops are primarily trained in Poland, Germany, and Belgium. The training programs are updated regularly to meet the needs and realities of the battlefield in Ukraine. Although there were discussions to move some training to Ukraine, this idea was dropped. Romania recently announced plans to create a training center for Ukrainian marines.


The Institute for the Study of War:
“ISW has recently observed an increase in Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs throughout the theater, and Russian commanders are likely writ large condoning, encouraging, or directly ordering the execution of Ukrainian POWs. Head of the Ukrainian Department for Combating Crimes in Conditions of Armed Conflict Yuri Bilousov stated on October 4 that Ukrainian sources documented evidence indicating that Russian forces have executed 93 Ukrainian POWs on the battlefield since the start of the full-scale invasion and that 80 percent of the recorded cases occurred in 2024.”


Ukrainian soldier Officeralex_33:
“According to Toretsk, the bastards are trying to expand in urban areas with small infantry groups. That is, they are not using concentrated attacks, they are acting like cockroaches - trying to penetrate any crack.

For the most part, they are sending even three hundred [300 is slang for wounded] men back to the assaults, are actively used like suicide bombers who run with TM-62 anti-tank mines with UZRGM [grenade fuzes], and they do not always have time to throw the mine or run away)
…
At the front, autumn has officially come into its own, here it does not come according to the calendar or a fallen yellow leaf, here the criteria are completely different. After the rains in the last few days, the field roads have become so washed out, the cold weather has started - the first trench candles have been put into operation, warm clothes will not get better from now on, the worst, simply nasty period of trench life is coming, so guys get ready, and relatives, relatives and in general everyone cares - help as much as you can, warm clothes, socks, winter shoes, trench candles - all this is needed in infinite quantities.”

Ukrainian soldier Stanislav Osman:
“In Toretsk, the boys are working on the destruction of DRG groups that are climbing out in the areas of our control.
There is information that units with commanders from Toretsk have entered this area, so it is harder to fight them than it seemed, because they know every entrance and exit and the locals in the city.”


Quote of the Day:
“The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves hedgehogs.”
― G.K. Chesterton