Posts
November
2 2024
FT.com reported that Ukraine and Russia are holding talks to negotiate a pause in attacking each other's energy facilities. According to the story, the talks are being mediated by Qatar. The article cites an unnamed Ukrainian official who said that both sides reduced strikes on energy infrastructure after “an understanding [was] reached by their intelligence agencies.” President Zelenskyy believes a deal could lead to broader peace negotiations. An unnamed former senior official in the Kremlin said that Putin is unlikely to make such a deal until Ukraine’s troops are pushed out of Kursk. An official from the President’s Office has declared all of this untrue. They said that there was no silent agreement to stop targeting infrastructure, there was no negotiation on infrastructure strikes between Ukraine and Russia that were mediated by Qatar, and that the Russian strikes on infrastructure slowed, but hadn’t stopped.
President Zelenskyy says that Ukraine now produces 20 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers each month. He says Western financial support is driving expansion in Ukraine’s defense industry.
Norway will allocate $118.8 million under the US Jumpstart initiative for weapons and spare parts for Ukraine’s F-16s. This was announced by Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov and Norwegian Minister of Defense Bjørn Arild Gram during a joint press conference.
Poland has begun building a series of fortifications along its borders with Russia and Belarus that they call “The Eastern Shield.” The program will require $2.55 billion to implement and is expected to be completed by 2028. Construction of the Eastern Shield has already begun.
The US has announced its 69th aid package provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority. It is worth $425 million.
It includes:
• Munitions for NASAMS air defense systems.
• Stinger missiles
• Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions
• Air-to-ground munitions
• Ammunition for HIMARS
• 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
• TOW missiles
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
• Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers (211)
• Small arms and ammunition
• Medical equipment
• Demolitions equipment and munitions; and
• Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas announced that Russian troops have been redeployed from Kaliningrad Oblast to Ukraine and Kursk Oblast. Speaking at the Kyiv Security Forum for Youth, he said that the presence of Russian forces in Kaliningrad is now minimal. Russian propaganda frequently uses the idea that Russian troops could attack the Suwalki Corridor and isolate the Balkans. The decrease in troops and equipment in Kaliningrad improves security for the Baltics, Poland, and NATO as a whole.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas:
“We are analyzing the presence of Russian troops in Kaliningrad and see that it is empty…This is a testament to how your struggle helps us.”
German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit was asked if there was any chance that Olaf Scholz would change his mind in regards to providing Taurus missiles, and he said “No.”
Russia is simplifying the design of the Shahed-136, to reduce production costs further. Debris from recently downed drones shows that Russia has modified the MD550 engine by removing the starter and flywheel. The MD550 is a two-stroke engine with a capacity of 50 hp, and its simplified version allows Russia to purchase more engines for less.
Production of Shahed-136s has been localized at the Alabuga facilities, where original components have been replaced with cheaper alternatives. For instance, The original Iranian-made Shahed used a honeycomb-like structure for its body, while the Russian-made Shahed uses a material resembling foam. It has also been reported that they are possibly using cheaper electronic components and/or labor, which leads to drones failing to reach their targets more often.
While the estimated cost of a Shahed-136 is around $40,000 to $50,000, its actual production cost has been reported at approximately $193,000 during mass production. It is unclear if the reporting is inaccurate, or if this massively larger price tag is the result of staggering levels of corruption.
As of September 2024, production at Alabuga reportedly reached 6,0000 Shaheds per year, with peak production projected to be about 600-800 Shaheds per month. In early 2024 production was reported to be 330-350 per month.
On November 1, U.S. Congressmen Mike Rogers, Jerry Carl, and Mike Quigley arrived in Kyiv. Mike Rogers, a member of the Republican Party and a Congressman from Alabama, is also a candidate for the vacant Michigan Senate seat. Jerry Carl, also from Alabama, represents the Republican Party as a Congressman. Mike Quigley, a Congressman from Illinois, is a member of the Democratic Party.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said that the Tusk administration offered to let Ukraine purchase items from Poland’s defense industry on credit, and repay the money later. He seems to have been saying that Ukraine did not take them up on the offer.
Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre said that Russia managed to capture 150 square km in Donetsk Oblast last week.
While in China, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico accused the West of being responsible for the war in Ukraine and said that “peace” is impossible as long as the West continues to provide military and financial aid to Ukraine. He also complimented China’s attempts at brokering “peace” between Russia and China.
The UK released a new Intelligence Update on Ukraine.
“Around 10,000 Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) combat troops are in Russia. It is almost certain some have already deployed to the Kursk region.
Russia and DPRK have committed to deepening their bilateral partnership… centered around North Korea's provision of arms. In return, DPRK has received high-level international support from Russia and has secured a trading partner willing to break sanctions.
Russian and DPRK forces would almost certainly experience interoperability difficulties having not previously carried out joint military exercises. DPRK troops conducting combat operations would almost certainly have issues operating Russian equipment, integrating into Russia's command and control structure, and working around the language barrier with Russian forces.”
Lublin Voivodeship in Poland is preparing for a large wave of migrants. So far, it has not seen such a wave form yet, but with attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and Russian advances, Lublin wants to be prepared to handle people fleeing for better living conditions as colder weather arrives.
Dmytro Sakharuk, an Executive Director at Ukrainian power company DTEK, said that Ukraine may not have to face any blackouts this winter if infrastructure is sufficiently protected.
A Russian Su-34 jet was reportedly shot down. It has been reported that 2 pilots were killed. There are unconfirmed rumors that the plane was shot down by an F-16.
Soldiers of the Shkval Battalion of the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade managed to take 15 Russians prisoner after a battle in a high-rise building in Vovchansk.
According to Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Ukraine will experiment with 5G networks in 3 Ukrainian cities, with particular focus being placed on how well it operates with military equipment. The program will last 2 years. If all goes as expected, the entire nation should have 5G service by 2030. 5G can transfer data up to 10 times faster than 4G, and can function as a crucial lifeline as Ukraine’s infrastructure suffers attacks.
Ukrainian boxer Oleksandr Usyk said he’d like to fight Daniel DuBois after he beats Tyson Fury.
A drone attack targeted an oil depot in Svitlohrad, Stavropol Krai. The storage tanks had protective cages around them. It seems one tank was lightly damaged.
Russia and Iran are preparing to sign a new defense cooperation agreement. The specifics of the deal currently seem to be unknown.
Canada is actively urging other nations to approve Ukraine’s right to conduct long-range strikes within Russian territory using Western-made weapons.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said that Estonia was considering possibly purchasing drones from Ukraine. He said the quality of drones produced by Ukraine was very high and that if the Ministry of Defense opened a tender for drones, Ukrainian manufacturers would be allowed to bid for contracts. Later this month, Pevkur will meet with Ukrainian defense minister Rustem Umerov about the potential purchase of arms from Ukrainian industry.
Russia reported that 24 Ukrainian UAVs attacked various regions, including Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Oryol, Rostov, and Nizhny Novgorod, and occupied Crimea on the night of November 1-2. Russia claimed all were shot down.
The Institute for the Study of War:
“The 8,000 North Korean soldiers reportedly preparing to enter combat in Kursk Oblast thus represent about one week's worth of casualties across the entire front line.”
U.S. intelligence officials have reported that a video claiming to show vote tampering in Georgia is a forgery created by "Russian influence actors" to undermine the upcoming presidential elections. Both the FBI and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger have confirmed that the video is a forgery and warned that Russia disinformation campaigns are still ongoing.
Ukrainian communications company HIMERA is increasing production of its G1 Pro radio systems with an investment from the Nezlamni Foundation with a value of $100,000-$400,000. This funding will help develop new products.
The Himera G1 Pro has AES-256 encryption and pseudo-random frequency hopping, making it more difficult to intercept communications, and can quickly establish a mobile ad-hoc network. They were designed for ease of use; they allow for setup via Bluetooth on smartphones without requiring training and have an extended communication range as compared to older models.
The company produces these directly for the Ukrainian military and incorporates user feedback to improve its functionality. Daily Hog staff have seen reports of earlier Himera radios being used in the field dating back to December 2022 and have seen multiple iterations of these devices, meaning these more modern radios are likely a relatively mature technology.
Over the past 48 hours, Ukraine has published at least 3 videos of Russian Buk air defense systems being destroyed.
Alexey Petrov, director of the state enterprise "SpetsTechnoExport," said that Ukraine is making its own cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that could be ready for use sometime next year.
On November 1, Russian missiles struck a police station in downtown Kharkiv, killing Police Colonel Andriy Matviyenko and injuring 40 others, including 30 police officers, a rescuer, and nine civilians, while damaging an administrative building, private homes, apartment complexes, stores, and over ten vehicles.
On the night of November 2, 2024, Russia launched an attack using a Kh-31P guided missile and 71 Shahed and possibly some additional decoys. Ukraine successfully shot down 39 of them. During the attack, 21 drones were “lost,” and 5 returned to Russia. At the time of the Air Force’s report, about 5 shaheds were still in the air.
Many of the drones from the attack were sent to Kyiv. In Solomianskyi District, several residential buildings had windows damaged, and five cars were damaged. In Sviatoshyn District, a fire broke out on the 15th and 16th floors of a 16-story building, 18 residents were evacuated; a police officer was injured from smoke inhalation while responding to the scene. A 22-story building in Holosiivskyi District had its windows damaged. In Dnipro District, there were fires on several balconies of residential buildings and debris felling on an office building. There was a small fire in an unoccupied high-rise in Shevchenkivskyi District, and in Pecherskyi District a balcony in an 8-story building was damaged. In total, two injuries were reported, including one hospitalized in Sviatoshyn. All fires were extinguished.
Ukrainian milblogger MiliTJournal:
“Statistics of downed/launches of aerial vehicles for October 2024:
🔹 Air Defense Efficiency - 1795/1992 - 90%
▪️ "Shahed" + "decoys" - 1785/1914 - 93%
▪️ "Kh-59" - 0/13 - 0%
▪️ "Kh-59/Kh-69" - 7/20 - 35%
▪️ "Iskander-K" - 1/1 - 100%
▪️ "Iskander-M/KN-23" - 0/23 - 0%
▪️ "Kinzhal" (Kh-47M2) - 2/3 - 67%
▪️ "Kh-22" - 0/2 - 0%
▪️ "Kh-31P" - 0/4 - 0%
▪️ "Kh-35" - 0/1 - 0%
▪️ "S-300/400" - 0/11 - 0%
🔹 October Summary: The Russian Federation has again increased the number of drones launched, nearly to 2,000 (according to General Staff data, 2023 UAVs). This likely occurred due to decoys like "Gerbera" and others, not just "Shaheds." Additionally, no X-101 or "Kalibr" missiles were launched, indicating a buildup for a large salvo, aiming to overwhelm air defense through quantity.”
Quote of the Day:
“We make Idols of our concepts, but Wisdom is born of hedgehogs.”
― St. Gregory the Great