Posts
December 12 2024
On
December 11, a "court" in the “Donetsk People's Republic”
sentenced nine Ukrainian soldiers, all of whom were defenders of
Mariupol, to sentences ranging from 24 years to life in a
high-security prison. The soldiers are all members of Ukraine's 36th
Separate Marine Brigade and were accused of striking the village of
Staryi Krym in March 2022 and were captured after the surrender of
Avozstal.
Japan’s
long-term contracts with Russia’s Sakhalin-2 project to import
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) are about to expire, and energy companies
see this as an opportunity. The Sakhalin-2 project is owned by
Gazprom, a state-owned energy company based in St. Petersburg. Japan
is the world’s second-largest LNG importer and imports 9% of its
LNG from Russia. 5 million tons of this LNG comes from Sakhalin-2.
Japan faces pressure from G7 states to reduce its dependency on
Russian energy sources. That, along with its own desire to transition
to greener and renewable energy sources may lead to Japan shifting
away from such a strong reliance on Russia. Japan plans to reduce the
amount of energy it produces with gas from 33% in 2022 to 20% by 2030
while at the same time increasing energy produced by renewable energy
sources from 26% to 38%. Japan is also looking to diversify its
sources for LNG, seeing possible partners in nations such as the US,
Australia, Malaysia, Oman, and Canada.
German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed that Ukraine will receive its sixth
IRIS-T air defense system and Patriot launchers by the end of the
year.
On Dec. 10, Russia launched an Iskander
missile at a private clinic in Zaporizhzhia, trapping patients and
staff inside. Rescue teams saved two women who had been trapped for
over seven hours after calling the emergency hotline. The attack has
killed 10, while leaving 21 others injured, including a child.
Russia will
supply North Korea with Mig-29s and Su-27s as a form of payment for
North Korea’s assistance in the war. Admiral Samuel Paparo, leader
of the US Indo-Pacific Command said that North Korea was the one that
originally suggested using North Korean troops to fight on Russia’s
behalf and that North Korean soldiers are now fighting on the
territory of Ukraine. Previously, the US military tended to say that
North Korean troops were only fighting in Kursk. Admiral Paparo said
that they won’t be the most modern versions of the jets, but even
older MiG-29s and Su-27s would provide a massive improvement to North
Korea’s airpower.
Norwegian NGO Fritt Ukraina has
joined forces with the Come Back Alive Foundation to contribute to
the Let The Drones Fall initiative. The initiative has the goal of
providing the Ukrainian military with 1,000 interceptor drones to
down Russian reconnaissance drones. Additionally, it aims to provide
drone crews with pickup trucks, communications gear, night vision
equipment, and power generation equipment. Fritt Ukraina has donated
€800,000 to this project. The first delivery of gear funded by
Fritt Ukraina has already been made.
Estonia is working on a plan
to reform conscription based on lessons learned from the war in
Ukraine. The Estonian Defense Forces aim to improve training,
focusing on physical readiness and modern combat tactics. Fewer
conscripts might be recruited in 2026, but the military will focus
intensely on career military instructors who are well-versed in the
style of combat occurring in Ukraine. The reform includes creating a
large reserve unit to patrol the borders and counter hybrid threats
from Russia and Belarus.
Ukraine's budget for 2025
allocates over $52.7 billion for defense and security. This amounts
to 26.3% of GDP. This includes $17.7 billion for weapons and $1.2
billion for drones of various types. Even with reduced aid from the
US, Ukraine expects to sustain its military operations through
mid-2025. Ukraine will receive at least $50 billion in aid from the
G7 countries, including $20 billion from the United States, $20
billion from the European Union, $3 billion from the United Kingdom,
$3.7 billion from Canada, and $3 billion from Japan.
Ukrainians
who were subjected to sexual violence by the Russian military have
written an open letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres,
urging the inclusion of Russia on the UN’s "list of shame"
for its systematic sexual violence against Ukrainian citizens. The
group has also gathered evidence of these crimes, including names of
perpetrators, and is willing to provide it to international human
rights organizations. The UN could hold a hearing on the matter by
April-May 2025, but the final decision to add Russia to the list can
only be made by Guterres.
On December 11, 2024,
Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in Bryansk, causing a fire at
the facility. The facility has 25 tanks holding oil products. Russian
authorities reported intercepting 14 drones and that falling debris
set the fire. The depot is located over 100 kilometers from the
Ukraine border. There has been no satellite imagery of the attack
yet, because of how cloudy it is. This time of the year is always
very cloudy in Russia and Ukraine. This depot has been successfully
attacked in the past. On April 25, 2022, two explosions and a large
fire were reported at this facility. Older satellite imagery shows at
least 1 tank was destroyed, with possibly an additional 2 or more
being damaged.
The U.S. Department of State
has approved the sale of F-16 “sustainment services” to Ukraine,
valued at $266.4 million. The sale includes various items and
services, such as the Joint Mission Planning System (JMPS), AN/PYQ-10
Simple Key Loaders (SKL), minor modifications and maintenance
support, the Engine Component Improvement Program (CIP), spare and
repair parts, consumables, accessories, repair and return support,
weapons software, and support equipment, as well as classified
software, unclassified software, delivery support, publications, and
documentation, personnel training, training equipment, studies,
surveys, and U.S. government and engineering, technical, and
logistics support services provided by contractors. Contractors will
be provided by Sabena, Lockheed Martin, and Pratt & Whitney to
provide assistance and training.
New satellite images show increased Russian military activity at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. MLRS systems including BM-30 Smerch and BM-27 Uragans are now positioned around the powerplant. Trenches and fortifications are also visible near the cooling pond. These systems can strike major Ukrainian cities including Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih, and their presence at the plant complicates Ukraine's ability to strike them. Analysts also link the fortifications to Russia's failed plans to rebuild a water pumping station after the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam.
President Zelenskyy
stated that even if a peace deal is signed with Russia, Ukraine will
not recognize occupied territories as Russian. Zelenskyy said that
Ukraine may have to resort to diplomacy if Ukraine cannot recover the
stolen lands militarily, he said that Ukraine cannot forgive Russia
for its atrocities, including the destruction of homes, the loss of
lives, and the deportation of thousands of children. He said that
recognizing these territories as Russian would amount to a sign of
forgiveness and acceptance of Russia’s behavior.
U.S. Department of Defense
spokesperson Sabrina Singh said that Russia may soon launch another
Oreshnik IRBM at Ukraine soon. She stated that the US does not
believe the attack will have a significant impact on the battlefield
and that its use is merely an intimidation tactic. Neither the
Ukrainian people nor the Ukrainian military treats the threat as very
serious.
According to the State
Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus, Belarus has tested the
9M318 anti-aircraft missile, designed for the Buk-MB2 air defense
system, The missile was tested near the Ukraine border. The 9M318
missile was developed by the TSP Research and Development Bureau. The
research bureau claims it is capable of targeting high-speed,
maneuvering objects, including ballistic and cruise missiles,
aircraft, and helicopters, and is capable of operating in the face of
powerful electronic warfare. It allegedly has a range of 70
kilometers and can operate at altitudes of 15 meters to 25
kilometers. They also claim the missile is also capable of striking
ground targets and detecting stealth aircraft.
Ukraine’s
first legal medical cannabis products are expected to become
available by January 2025. Regulations are in place and drug
registration is taking place currently. Olha Stefanishyna from
Ukraine's parliamentary committee said that everything is ready and
prepared for medical cannabis, except for the cannabis
itself.
Hungarian Dictator Viktor Orban claims
President Zelenskyy rejected his proposal for a "Christmas
truce" and a major prisoner exchange with Russia. Orban claimed
that Hungary made one last attempt to promote “peace” before its
term as EU Council president ended.
Ukraine's
Ministry of Defense reported that it transferred over 1.2 million
drones, including reconnaissance, strike, and FPV kamikaze drones, to
its soldiers in 2023. This included 40,000 reconnaissance multi-rotor
drones (12,000 with night vision optics), 5,000 aircraft-type UAVs
such as the Shark or Furia, over 6,000 long-range strike drones such
as the Lyutyi, 2,000 reusable strike UAVs like the Nemesis, Bat,
Vampire, and 5,000 reusable FPV copters. Additionally, 1.1 million
FPV kamikaze drones were supplied. 100,000 additional drones are
planned to be delivered by the end of the year.
Canada's House
of Commons has approved $587 million in military aid to Ukraine. The
funds will be used to purchase artillery ammunition and equipment and
train Ukrainian soldiers. Canada is also providing an additional $35
million for demining and cybersecurity protection in Ukraine.
The
Insider published an article saying that Russian snipers continue
to receive Western rifles and ammunition, despite the sanctions.
European, American, and Turkish companies have stopped dealing
directly with Russia, but have seen a sudden surge of purchases from
countries like Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Uzbekistan, which are acting as intermediaries to skirt the
sanctions. Russia produces its own sniper rifles and ammunition, but
these are generally considered inferior in quality and performance to
Western models, especially at longer ranges. Production rates are
also apparently too low to keep up with demand, and prices aren’t
significantly cheaper compared to the superior Western
models.
Companies like Beretta still operate inside Russia
despite the sanctions and embargoes. A company called “Russian
Eagle,” a joint venture between Beretta and a Russian “arms
baron” named Mikhail Khubutia, has received more than 1,000 rifles
and more than a million rounds of ammunition from Beretta and
companies owned by Beretta such as Benelli, Sako, Stoeger, Tikka,
Norma, and RWS. Beretta operates in violation of the US, and EU
sanctions, as well as regulations passed by the European Council in
2014. At a sniper competition held in Crimea, competitors used
American Desert Tech SRS rifles, British Accuracy International AXSR
rifles, and Austrian Steyr Mannlicher SSG rifles. 24 out of the 28
competitors used American ammunition produced by Hornady and Berger
over Russian-made ammunition.
Osa SAM Upgrade:
The Come Back Alive Foundation has invested over $330,000 to upgrade
Ukrainian Osa surface-to-air missile systems as part of the HORNET
project. The modernization enables these systems to fire both
standard 9M33M3 surface-to-air missiles, which Ukraine has few of,
and R-73 air-to-air guided missiles, which Ukraine has large numbers
of. The R-73 missile is an air-to-air guided missile capable of
defeating targets at distances ranging from 20 to 40 kilometers in
the front hemisphere, and up to 300 meters in the rear hemisphere. It
can be guided by the Osa's systems or acquire targets autonomously
after launch, thanks to its homing head with infrared and Lock-on
After Launch technology. This provides the system with impressive
shoot and scoot capacity.
Here is a collection of on the ground reports from various Ukrainains, most of whom are soldiers. These are sorted by region from North to South, or at least I tried to do that. This is in their own words.
Northern Regions (Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv):
"The Chernihiv and Sumy border on our side (Siversk) – Overall, news came that a significant number of enemies have gathered from our area. So, we are currently strengthening and reinforcing our region with all efforts. There are a lot of sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRG), we strike them periodically, but they seem to be multiplying. But it's alright, we hold the line and won't let go." - Bakhmutskyy
Kharkiv direction (area of the Starytsia settlement) - two weeks of assault, infantry, equipment. Unsuccessfully, we fight back, the Podars lose infantry and equipment, mercilessly. The guys stand like a shield. - Bakhmutskyy
Eastern Regions (Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk):
"Everyone understands that the enemy will try to symbolically cross the Dnipro River in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but they won't be able to establish themselves there without large forces, as the terrain there has specific features. However, they will definitely keep trying until February. At the same time, the situation on the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar direction is stable. In Chasiv Yar, they even managed to push some of the enemy out of several buildings." -Bakhmut Demon
Chasiv Yar direction: The enemy has occupied half of the refractory plant, has also reached the northern outskirts of this plant, as I reported earlier, it is already surrounded on 3 sides, the enemy has also advanced in the "Northern" neighborhood. Thus, the central node of our defense may eventually collapse. Next, the enemy has the task of moving to offensive actions on Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka. - Muchnoy Jugend
The Bakhmut direction is very tense, but stable, the enemy is active around the clock, trying to take advantageous positions and ensure the effectiveness of mechanized assaults in the future, since past attempts ended badly. There are no classic assault operations south of Chasiv Yar, but one-off "pairs" climb constantly, mostly to the positions of our pilots and mortars, trying to bypass the infantry. -Stanislav Osman
Toretsk direction: After the enemy took control of the Central Mine and its tailings dumps, they quickly began to develop offensive actions west of these positions, also trying to push through to the northern outskirts of the city in the direction of the Toretska Mine. This is one of the serious defense nodes, after the enemy presses on, there will be no way to hold on here, so the city can fall into the hands of the invaders! In turn, our Cossacks do not give up ahead of time and try to hold the city as long as possible. - Muchnoy Jugend
The Podarys have thrown reinforcements in the form of new armor, and zero-grade armor. The other day there was an assault, they threw a BMP-2, which was safely dismantled, but the paint and condition of the equipment looked like it had just been driven from the factory. A similar situation was observed in the Torets direction a few months ago, also BMP-2. But still, the use of armor has noticeably decreased. -Officer Alex
Central Regions (Pokrovsk, Kurakhiv, Velyka Novosilka):
Pokrovsky direction: Lysivka is holding steady, as is Sukhyi Yar. There are currently no significant enemy advances, but their artillery is working. The enemy is also continuing to clear the Shevchenko settlement and is not moving any further, they are dying right on the spot! The enemy is trying to focus on the railway line that leads north to the Chunyshyne settlement. Thus, the infantry is making a detour to force us to abandon our positions in the Zelene-Dachenske settlement, by the way, there is an enemy advance in the last village! The Rusnya is also pressing through the landings on Pishchane, and as I said yesterday, one of the enemy's tasks is to get to mine No. 1. - Muchnoy Jugend
Pokrovsky direction: The enemy's main task at the moment is to cut the communication roads from the south leading to Pokrovsk and the mine located north of the village of Udachnoe. Let me tell you more about this enterprise that mines coking coal! The reserves of this mine are about 200 million tons. Last year, we were 90% self-sufficient in this coal that was mined at this mine. This industrial facility has a strategic asset for our country and the entire metallurgy industry as a whole! As for Pokrovsk, the enemy will crawl towards it not only from the west, bypassing it, but from all the cracks. And right now, they are preparing a significant number: equipment, artillery, drones and with the involvement of aviation. No, I'm not scaring anyone, why should I do this? We have already passed the most terrible, we just need to understand one thing, if we don't solve one big problem for everyone, then expect a serious collapse! - Muchnoy Jugend
The slow, creeping movement of the sub-district in the Pokrovsky direction. The main blow is being prepared for January. -Bakhmut demon
Pokrovsky direction: The fighting for Shevchenko continues, the podars have squeezed all ours to the outskirts of the city. The number of pilot crews involved in this direction is simply colossal, but there are so many podars that there are not enough BCs [drone bombs] for resets [drones that drop bombs] in the positions, the drones' engines are simply burning. In parallel, the podars have climbed from the Novotroitskyi side, developing the direction towards the village of Udachne. We continue to kill these locusts. -Bakhmutskyy
Kurakhiv direction: The situation in the Kurakhovsky and Pokrovsky directions remains difficult. The enemy has advanced in Shevchenko, Pushkino, Sontsovka, Kurakhovo, Elizavetovka and on the southern flank of the Sudzhansky direction in the Kursk region. -Petrenko
Kurakhiv direction: Gradually, our positions in the city are sinking, fighting is taking place in the western part of the high-rises, everything leads to the fact that very soon it will completely come under the control of the enemy. Also, strong fighting continues for Uspenivka and Hannivka. Our Cossacks are fighting with all their might and showing strong resistance. Also, fighting continues for Veselyi Gai and Kostiantynopolske. From the last village, the enemy was knocked back into the field. Plus, the gray zone is expanding in the area of the village of Sukhyi Yaly. Also, the Russian army began moving towards Rozlyv, 2 landings were taken exactly! - Muchnoy Jugend
Today, in the Kurakhiv direction, the main pressure was on Uspenivka and Yantarne. They stormed with armor, the guys destroyed about 50% of the armor, the rest managed to land a troop and escape. The equipment was mainly BMP-3. The guys fought back, but the situation is not great, because if they press Uspenivka - it will be a mess. -Officer Alex
It's a real hot mess right now in the Uspenivka area on Kurakhivske. -Officer Alex
In the Kurakhiv direction in the Dalny area, the Podarya armored columns have become more active again, they are currently storming with a column of 7 units of equipment. We are waiting for the results. UPD: Already 9 units of equipment. -Officer Alex
There are still civilians in Kurakhove, some wounded by the mortar fire. It's a pity for the people, but as a soldier I will say, civilians in such a massacre only hinder their army and do not value their own lives, because the mortar fire is on our civilians, but not on us. I don't know what and how to do to get the civilians to leave, I don't know. -Bakhmut Demon
Southern Regions (Velyka Novosilka):
Quote of the Day:
“Basically,
when you get to my age, you'll really measure your success in life by
how many of the hedgehogs you want to have love you actually do love
you.”
-Warren Buffet