December 27 2024

A general wrapup of the past few days around Christmas.


Poland has begun delivering the 45th military aid package to Ukraine. Deliveries are underway. The contents of the package are being kept secret for security reasons.


Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal reported that Ukraine has received the first $1 billion from the $20 billion tranche that will be provided by the US through the World Bank. The money is being provided as a loan and will be repaid by taxes placed on the profits of Russian assets.


Ukraine has received a $1 billion loan from Japan and the United Kingdom. The funds are guaranteed by these countries under the World Bank's Development Policy Loan mechanism. The money will be used for high-priority social and humanitarian programs.


Two Ukrainian soldiers from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade captured five Russian soldiers who took part in an assault on a Ukrainian position in the Donbas region. The assault group originally consisted of 8 men, but three were eliminated before these 5 retreated to a trench and then were captured.

On December 24, 2024, soldiers from Ukraine's 77th Airmobile Brigade captured 11 Russian invaders, including a Belarusian citizen who had been fighting for Russia. They published a video showing the assault, which resulted in 12 destroyed Russian armored vehicles, 50 Russian soldiers killed, and 11 prisoners taken.

Ukrainian soldier Muchnoy Jugend published a video showing 14 Russian POWs that were taken.


On December 24, 2024, an explosion occurred at the ZSR Explosives plant in Balıkesir province, western Turkey, around 8:30 a.m. The plant produces explosives for both military and civilian use and the explosion occurred at its capsule production site. Preliminary reports said that 12 people were killed and three others injured. The governor of Balıkesir, Ismail Ustaoglu, said that there was no risk of another explosion and that the explosion was not the result of sabotage.


Ukrainian Armor, in partnership with the Czechoslovak Group, has secured licenses to produce various types of NATO-standard artillery and tank ammunition in Ukraine. The agreement includes the transfer of technology, documentation, and components for several types of ammunition to be produced at least partially in Ukraine. The newly licensed ammunition types include:

    • 155mm M107 artillery round
    • 155mm L15 artillery round
    • 155mm HE ER-BT/BB MKM/VMK long-range artillery round
    • 105mm M1 NE high explosive artillery round
    • 120mm tank round

When production begins, over 50% of the production will be done in Ukraine, with the plan to increase it to 80% over time. The Ukrainian facilities are expected to produce 100,000 rounds in 2025, and 300,000 by 2026.


Latvia has donated 612 cars, seized from drunk drivers to Ukraine, with an estimated value of €2.25 million. In 2023, Latvia amended the Law on Support of Ukrainian Civilians, allowing state-owned vehicles to be donated to Ukraine, including those confiscated from individuals caught driving under the influence. The vehicles are being sent to Ukraine, with some directed to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and military units. The owners of the cars are not compensated as part of the punishment for drunk driving.


A Russian Su-25 attack aircraft collided mid-flight with a ZALA reconnaissance drone over the Donetsk region. The collision damaged the aircraft's nose, cockpit windows, and avionics, but the pilot was unharmed and landed safely. The damage is not considered severe and is likely repairable at the airfield.


A leaked database reveals that nearly 20,000 Russian soldiers from the Southern Military District are listed as deserters or AWOL. The list, published by the “Do not wait for good news” Telegram channel, includes 19,210 servicemen, mostly privates, corporals, and sergeants, with some officers. Over two-thirds of these soldiers were mobilized for the war against Ukraine, many from the 1st and 2nd Army Corps. The total number of deserters may be higher, as some soldiers were not officially reported as AWOL.


On 25 December, Russian forces launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, specifically targeting thermal power plants operated by DTEK, the country's largest energy company. The attack caused significant damage to the plant's equipment. This was the 13th major assault on Ukraine's energy sector in 2024, and the 10th targeting DTEK facilities. Energy workers began repairs immediately after the attack. Since the full-scale invasion began, DTEK's plants have been attacked over 200 times. Explosions were reported in multiple cities, including Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Kharkiv, with casualties confirmed in Kharkiv.

On the night of 24-25 December, one of the Russian cruise missiles that attacked Ukraine flew through Moldova's airspace, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. The missile traveled 140 kilometers through Moldova and Romania before heading toward Chernivtsi in Ukraine.

Ukrainian artist Yama Tarhonia gifted Pope Francis a blue and yellow dove of peace made from stained glass damaged in a Russian attack on the Church of St. Nicholas in Kyiv on 20 December 2024. The dove was presented through Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, who visited the church on 24 December. The Church of St. Nicholas, a national monument, was severely damaged by the missile strike.


The Biden administration is considering new sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector before the end of President Biden's term. These potential measures include restrictions on the shadow fleet transporting Russian oil, targeting new Russian oil exporters, and revoking licenses for banks processing Russian energy transactions. Biden previously avoided such intense sanctions to prevent global oil price hikes. This is less of a concern as inflation has slowed and the oil markets stabilized. G7 nations are also considering reducing the price cap on Russian oil.


Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers has approved a resolution to streamline the procurement of domestically produced drones and electronic warfare systems, making it a permanent practice. Defence Minister Rustem Umierov stated that this move will speed up deliveries to the front lines. Military commanders are now able to directly procure drones and EW systems without needing approval from their superiors.


Sources from within the Azerbaijani government have reportedly confirmed that Azerbaijan Airlines flight number 8432 was shot down by Russian air defenses when flying from Baku to Grozny. The plane had 67 passengers, including 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russians, six Kozaks, and three Kyrgyzstani citizens. 38 have been confirmed to have been killed in the incident. Russia was reportedly trying to use its air defense systems to defend against an attack from drones on Grozny. Photos and video show damage to the aircraft fuselage consistent with the sort of damage you would see from an air defense missile. Reportedly a Pantsir air defense system was used, and their missiles launch rod-shaped shrapnel upon detonation. Before the incident, the pilots reported that their GPS wasn’t working, possibly implying that Russia was jamming navigation systems at the time. When the plane was initially struck, the pilots reported that it was a bird strike. The plane crashed while trying to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan.

Russian milblogger Cheka-OGPU reports that the plane was struck while it was over the Naursky District of Chechnya, about 18 km Northwest of the airport in Grozny. The plane was at an altitude of 2,400 meters. Cheka-OPGU reports there are several air defense units in the Grozny area, some armed with Pantsirs. This blogger also reports that the plane came under the influence of drone jammers, lost contact with the tower as it descended to land, and decided to fly back to Baku. As the plane turned to make the return trip, it experienced the explosion. The pilot asked for help and stated that the plane’s hydraulics had stopped functioning.

Azerbaijani parliamentary deputy Rasim Musabekov has issued a demand for Russia to apologize for the shooting down of this aircraft and provide compensation for the victims’ families.

There are reports that survivors of the crash were executed in an attempt to cover up this incident. This is currently unconfirmed and seems unlikely to be true.


The Ukrainian military has captured a North Korean prisoner of war for the first time. He was captured in Kursk and was injured. Zelenskyy has stated several were captured but none survived their injuries.  A photo of a captured Egyptian mercenary was also published. It is unclear which area he was captured in.


Ukraine’s Nemesis drone group destroyed another Tor-M2 air defense system. Nemesis has destroyed multiple Tor systems recently, including one on December 7.


A Russian heavy lift cargo ship, Ursa Major, sunk off the coast of Spain after an explosion in one of its engines it was seen drifting and listing to its right side and its bow raised slightly, indicating water was flooding the engine room. The Ursa Major was carrying 2 port cranes and 2 nuclear icebreaker reactor hatches to Vladivostok, through the Suez Canal. The Spanish Coast Guard rescued 14 crew members and 2 remain missing. The ship was built in Germany in 2009 and in 2022 14 engineering deficiencies were found on inspection, and were likely never addressed, and has only gotten worse, as Russian ships have been poorly maintained in recent years, leading to numerous accidents, including the three oil tankers sunk near the Kerch strait recently.


Quote of the Day:
"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of hedgehogs."
– Eleanor Roosevelt