January 3 2025

The previously reported upon Storm Shadow strike in the Russian city of Lgov in the Kursk region may have actually struck a Russian command bunker. Older satellite footage dating back to 2018 shows what seems to be an underground bunker being constructed with dimensions of roughly 45 x 30 m. Russian media outlet Astra reported that eight were killed and 22 were injured in the strike. Furthermore, it claims this facility was targeted by at least six storm shadows. Footage from the night of the attack has someone comment that “the guys are all in the bunker, a lot of people.” Reportedly after the first missile arrived soldiers went down into the bunker for safety, but more missiles hit the location afterward.


The Goryushko telegram channel has identified more than 90,000 Russian personnel killed in the war in Ukraine. These losses include people, and all of Russia’s official security forces, such as the military National Guard, police, the FSB, and members of private military companies. It does not include people who were mobilized from the occupied territories, nor does it include members of the militias from the occupied territories, even if they are Russian citizens. It also does not count foreign citizens fighting on behalf of Russia. This does not include people who have died of noncombat-related injuries or those who died in the rear.


Previously, it was reported that Russia lost an Mi-8 helicopter over the black sea after a naval drone shot it down. It turns out a second one was lost as well. A third helicopter was damaged and made it back to base. According to Russian sources, at least two crews are lost. One Russian source says after 16 people were lost, other helicopters, Ka-27s, were fired upon, but those made it back to base. Each Mi-8 can carry eight people. They have a crew of three but can carry additional personnel who can function as machine gunners. One Russian source, which was using pretty unclear language, seemed to imply that Russia was using pilots as spare crewmen and some were operating FPV drones, possibly to target Ukrainian naval drones. Some of these details are pretty unclear, and many are unconfirmed. One Russian milblogger said, “We haven’t lost so many top guys at once since 22.”


Russia also reportedly lost an Mi-28 attack helicopter. There are reports that it was sent out on a night mission in bad weather and confused Russian air defense crews shot it down.

There is a report of another Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter being shot down.


The Funeral of the Deputy Commander of the Engineering Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Major General Konstantin Smeshko was held. He died on December 26, from causes not yet publicly known.


Ukraine launched a successful missile strike on the village of Ivanovskoye, Kursk. The target was the House of Culture which was being used by the Russian 810th Marine Brigade. There are rumors that the strike took place during a medal ceremony, Russian sources deny this but do acknowledge the building was full of marines. The Ukrainian General Staff reported a successful strike on a Russian command post in Mar’ino, Kursk. This is right next to Ivanovskoye and possibly is referencing the same attack as the Invaovskoye strike.


Ukrainian forces discovered evidence of Russian commanders ordering war crimes against civilians in Nevske, Luhansk region. From a captured phone, they found recordings of a Russian soldier named Rudakov ordering troops to "clean out" local residents and kill them. A Russian soldier with the call-sign Jurist was ordered to shoot at civilian cars, torture civilians, and kill them. Rudakov said, “Shoot all the local cars, f*ck, I’d rather just take them all down... Tie up all the locals, f*ck... I don’t know how to tie them – throw them all in the basement.” Ukrainian troops found more evidence of Rudakov's war crimes in Nevske. When they contacted his father, they learned Rudakov hadn't been in contact for three months and was reported missing by his unit in October 2024. The captured radio recordings also showed that Russian soldiers were being treated brutally by their own army.

On January 1st, Russian drone attacks damaged the Lieberman Mansion in Kyiv, which has housed Ukraine's National Writers' Union since 1953. The attack destroyed all 83 windows and damaged the building's facade and interior offices. No one was injured, but the building is a historic landmark, being built in 1879.


On 1 January, scientists Ihor Zyma, and his wife, Olesia Sokur, were killed in a Russian drone attack on Kyiv. Ihor was a neurobiologist and his wife was a biologist.

Russia attacked a city bus in the Korabelnyi district of Kherson around 11:00, injuring three passengers. The injured were taken to the hospital.


Russia launched a shahed attack. 93 shaheds and decoys were launched, 60 were downed, and an additional 26 were “lost,” AKA suppressed with electronic warfare.


Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (DIU) has received a new drone, the Hazard, developed by War Hawk, which includes ten kamikaze drones, launch equipment, a control panel, and a Humvee. The drones have bodies made out of a composite material and they are said to separate silently. The drone is being referred to as “stealth.” The drone is capable of flying at high speeds and is equipped with a wide variety of warheads.


Ukrainian drone expert Serhii Flash reported that Russia has started equipping Shahed drones with Chinese-made CRPA satellite navigation antennas, replacing the previously used Iranian analogs and Russian-made Kometa antennas. This antenna, labeled as an "agriculture part," hardens the drones against Ukrainian electronic warfare. They may have begun using them because they are cheaper, or because there are shortages of Iranian components, or because the Kometas weren’t working that well anymore against newer Ukrainian capabilities. International sanctions might also be hindering the production of Kometas. Kometas are also used in KAB glide bombs, so we may begin seeing substitutions in those as well.


A survey done in December 2024 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows a decline in Ukrainians' willingness to endure the war "as long as necessary." The percentage dropped from 71-73% in early 2024 to 57% by December. While 21% said they could only endure for another six months. 18% said they didn’t know how much longer they could endure. The study found that wealthier families showed more endurance (70%) compared to low-income families (51%). Regional differences have become less extreme, but the Eastern regions generally showed a lower willingness to endure for a longer period of time.


On January 1, 2025, Ukraine became the 125th member of the International Criminal Court (ICC). This membership gives Ukraine new rights, including voting on ICC budgets and officials, participating in the Assembly of States Parties, nominating and voting for judges, having a say in ICC priorities and rules, and better access to the ICC's victim support fund. This membership strengthens Ukraine's ability to pursue justice for war crimes committed by Russia.


Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine welcomes international peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, but that should be part of the path to NATO and not an alternative to membership. He also said that these peacekeeping missions should not be the responsibility of one or two nations. He said this idea was brought up with Macron and Trump’s team, but he did not get an answer as to whether the US would agree to be part of a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy also mentioned that elections could be held in the country once the “hot phase” of the war had ended and martial law had been lifted. He said his decision to run for a second term would depend on how the war ends.


In 2024, Ukraine managed to increase its gas production by 2.2% over the previous year.


In 2024, Ukraine increased the amount of electricity it imported by 5.5 times as compared to the electricity it imported in 2023. This amounted to 4.4 million MWh, with Hungary being the largest supplier providing 39%, followed by Slovakia (23%), Romania (18%), Poland (14%), and Moldova (5%). Electricity exports remained similar to the levels they were in 2023, at roughly 366,000 MWh.


In December 2024, Ukraine was provided with $9.2 billion of financial assistance. Ukraine received a total of over $41.7 billion in financial aid throughout the year, with December holding the record for the most received in a single month.


In 2024, Ukraine's Defense Forces received 90 Ai-Petri SV technical intelligence countermeasure systems, with the last batch delivered on New Year's Eve. The Ai-Petri SV system consists of an electronic warfare station, and radar, and has anti-drone capabilities, including the ability to trace the locations of drone operators, disorient FPV drones, and blind optical devices of Russian drones using lasers.


Putin has instructed the Russian government and Sberbank to strengthen cooperation with China in developing artificial intelligence technology, as part of efforts to overcome sanctions and reduce reliance on Western microchip exports. In 2023, the CEO of Sberbank said that trying to find replacements for Western graphics processors was the biggest hurdle in developing AI in Russia. Sanctions prevent Russia from quickly and easily accessing powerful Western microchips, limiting the capabilities of any AI that Russia may be trying to develop.


Sergey Obolonik, the first deputy prime minister of the unrecognized Transnistrian Republic, has stated that the suspension of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine has occurred with significant negative results. All industrial operations have been halted except for those necessary for food production. Obolonik warned that the energy shortage has left nearly 75,000 households without gas and another 116,000 were left with reduced supplies. He said that if the lack of gas continues, it could lead to irreversible damage to industrial facilities, preventing them from ever resuming operations in the future.


The European Commission expects there to be no gas shortages in the rest of Europe as the result of the cessation of Russian gas flowing through Ukraine. Alternate sources have been found and large gas reserves were built up, helping to mitigate the dangers of future risks and threats to energy security.


According to a Russian blogger, Ukrainian forces are rapidly expanding their use of fiber optic-controlled FPV drones, suggesting they've ordered tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands from China for delivery between February and May. Another Russian blogger says that based on the number of purchases of fiber optic spools purchased from China is known and is large. These drones are already proving highly effective, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction near Novotroitskoye. One Russian says that, in this area, the Ukrainians have switched to using fiber optic drones almost exclusively and that “the section of the road from Zhelty to Novopustynka is literally clogged with burned equipment.” They add that one of these drones flies down this road roughly every 5 minutes. The Russians bemoan the fact that despite using fiber-optic drones first, and knowing Ukraine would also adopt them, Russia did nothing in advance to prepare for defense against them. They say that Ukraine uses them primarily to target combat and logistical vehicles.

One of the Russians says that Russia already struggles to locate standard FPV drone operators, and the fiber-optic cable prevents electronic snooping, making locating their operators even more difficult. One of the Russians did state that, because of their relatively larger size, fiber-optic drones can be more susceptible to small-arms fire, and serious efforts at training soldiers to fire at them can be successful. He said that more soldiers need to be given shotguns and the opportunity to do skeet shooting to practice shooting down drones. Finally, one of the Russians said that Russia manages to produce its own fiber optic drones without heavy reliance on China. This may or may not be true; in the past, some of Russia’s fiber optic drones were entirely made in China.


Battlefield reports


Terny

    • The situation is difficult. The enemy from the Terny side is trying to throw all their forces to gain a foothold in Ivanovka, they are storming the dams of the reservoir, there are two of them there, two thin paths on the water, everything is as if in the palm of their hand, but the podar doesn't care, they are pushing and pushing. -Officer Alex

Toretsk

    • North of the Central Market, the enemy has advanced along Grigory Skovorody Street and continues attacks with infantry units in the direction of the spoil heap of Mine No. 10 and the Toretskaya Mine. -Petrenko_IHS

    • North of the block of multi-story buildings, Russian troops have occupied a college building and continue attacks along Yevgeny Sednev and Kazachya Streets. -Petrenko_IHS

Pokrovsk Direction

    • On the right flank, the enemy advanced in the western part of Vozdvizhenka to a depth of 730 meters. Clashes continue for the northern part of the settlement.

On the left flank, Russian maneuver groups advanced west of the settlement of Volkovo in the area of ​​the Kryvulya ravine to a depth of 800 meters, in Solyonoye to a depth of 600 meters, and in the Novoye Lizavetovka area in an area up to 1.42 km wide to a depth of 650 meters.

On the southern flank, clashes continue in the direction of Slavyanka, Petrovpavlovka, and in the area of ​​the settlement of Shevchenko. -Petrenko_IHS

    • The enemy attacked Petropavlovka with an infantry unit, advanced along the Novoaleksandrovskaya gully to a depth of 400 meters, advanced in Novovasilevka and continues to press in the area of ​​Zelenyye and Vozdvizhenka. -Petrenko_IHS

    • Pokrovsk direction: The enemy has advanced 1km west of Vovkove towards Kotlyna! The enemy has also taken control of the village of Solone and has begun moving towards Udachny. Thus bypassing Uspenivka from the north and pressing towards Novovasylivka. In the latter village, the western outskirts remain, after the capture, attacks from the east on Uspenivka will begin. In Novovasylivka, the enemy is carrying out stabilization measures in the last basements and it can be assumed that the village will soon come under enemy control. Next will be battles for Nadezhdinka, the boars have come to it from the north and east. -Muchnoy Jugend

    • Pokrovsk direction: In the area of ​​the Zelene village, which is located south of Chunyshyne, in the western part of the pig pens and one buggy were discovered. During the rotation, all pig pens were destroyed. -Muchnoy Jugend

 

Kurakhiv Direction

    • The situation on the southern flank has not changed significantly. Clashes continue west of Uspenovka and in the direction of the treatment facilities.

South of Kurakhovo, the enemy has advanced to a depth of 1.87 km and continues to press in the western direction.

In Kurakhovo, Russian troops have occupied the remaining part of the Yuzhny microdistrict and advanced in the area of ​​the Kurakhovskaya thermal power plant in a section up to 900 meters wide. The situation in this direction remains difficult. -Petrenko_IHS
    • On the southern flank, Russian troops advanced west of Uspenovka in the area of ​​the Krasny Mayak tract to a depth of 1.45 km and continue attacks in the direction of the treatment facilities. Clashes continue. -Petrenko_IHS
    • North of the Volcha River, the enemy was able to enter the eastern part of Petropavlivka, the same thing is happening in the neighboring village of Slovianka. Only the western part of the Pipe Plant remains in the city, for which battles are currently taking place, the Rus' are accumulating the pace of assaults in order to finally knock us out. Also, south of the city, the Podarnya cuts off the communications of our Cossacks and all escape routes. The battles near Yantarne are also not stopping, the pig-suckers have practically already reached it. I will say that there is little time left in the pocket in which our army is still located, we need to get out of there. Because if the Rus' take Yantarne, they will go to the rear of Dachne along the road. And on the other hand, where to retreat? If there are no positions behind. -Muchnoy Jugend
    • On the front, everything continues to be tense: the enemy is actively pressing on Pokrovske, putting 200 per platoon at least every day; on Kurakhiv +- they leveled the situation, except for the situation around the city itself; on Velyka Novoselka, the enemy's advance has also stalled.

I would like to note that this "stall" is the result of the hard work of the units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, which sometimes work beyond their capabilities. - Officer Alex

Velyka Novosilka Area

    • Tactical training and accumulation of new forces by the enemy is currently underway, as well as our army is digging in to take up convenient positions and prepare for new enemy attempts to attack us again According to my information, the boars know where to move next, for this they are regrouping and adding new forces west and east of the Mokry Yaly River. Also, FPV units are looking for our weak points and striking them, thereby not allowing logistics to work reliably in the village. In general, the enemy is preparing for further battles and we are preparing too, the decisive battle will show whether we can hold them off or not! In this direction, the enemy has concentrated: 7 different brigades and 5 regiments, this is very serious, yes, they are killing but are constantly being replenished, the Podarya regiments have crazy losses and a bunch of 300s [wounded men]. -Muchnoy Jugend

    • Let me remind you of the truth that no one likes or wants to see: Our soldiers kill the bastards who came to destroy our land and take over the territory, yes, we make them die. I don't understand you, especially those who are subscribed to this channel, are you interested in successes? Maybe you are expecting a counterattack from our side, or maybe you think that I am telling you crap here about how difficult it is for us and that everything is going to hell? Remember one thing, we are in deep defense, in the minority and with unprepared positions behind us, no one will take us out against our titanic force. I will tell you once and for all, when the enemy really comes, I will inform you about it, for now, unfortunately, do not expect positive things on this channel or how they will feed you with victories! They will come, they will definitely come, but not now. If you want to know nothing, see nothing, then get out of there, leave this channel, leave Ukraine and don't fuck your head over it because it's hard for you to realize it. In turn, I will continue to report as it is and if you don't have the strength to read this, please get out of there! -Muchnoy Jugend

Quote of the Day:
“Everyone has a plan until they get hedgehogged in the mouth.”
― Mike Tyson