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Ukraine conducted a large drone attack against 5 Russian air bases on June 1. The Security Service of Ukraine, the SBU, used FPV drones to strike Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast, Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast, Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast, Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast, and the Ukrainka Air Base in Amur Oblast. Ukraine claims to have hit 41 Russian strategic aircraft, including an A-50 AWACS plane, an An-12 transport plane, and Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers. The operation caused approximately $7 billion in damage, according to the SBU.
So far, 13 aircraft are confirmed to have been destroyed, either from footage from the attack or from Satellite imagery.
This includes:
1 An-12 transport plane
8 Tu-95s destroyed, with another one possibly damaged
4 Tu-22Ms
There may be at least one plane at Ukrainka that was damaged/destroyed, based on low-resolution satellite imagery.
These are just the visually confirmed losses. So far, no evidence of the An-50 AWACS plane being damaged has surfaced, nor does there appear to be any damage to any Tu-160s. We are currently awaiting more information.
President Zelenskyy reported that the operation used 117 drones and destroyed 34 percent of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers. Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian operatives managed to withdraw from Russia before the attack began. The Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Malyuk, reported that the operation took one year, six months, and nine days from the beginning of planning to the completion of the attack. Ukraine’s intelligence services called the mission "Operation Pavutyna" or "Spider's Web." Ukrainian operators took hundreds of images of Russian bombers at the Poltava Museum of Heavy Bomber Aviation from every angle. They used this data to create AI algorithms that allow drones to identify and target the most vulnerable areas like weapons pylons and fuel tanks. The launch containers and drones were assembled in a warehouse in Chelyabinsk, rented in November 2024 for the cost of 350,000 rubles, approximately $4,400. Zelenskyy reported that the warehouse was located near an FSB headquarters.
Russian milblogger Fighterbomber confirms the use of 117 drones, or approximately 117 drones, to attack multiple bases. Furthermore, he was asked if anyone would receive a “beating” for trying to protect planes with tires, and he responded that the military leadership of Russia may hand out medals to whoever had that idea and claim that the June 1 attack would have been worse if not for the tires.
Russian authorities arrested several truck drivers who unknowingly drove the trucks with the drones in them. In the Ryazan region, authorities arrested 47-year-old Sergey Kanurin. In the Ivanovo region, they detained 56-year-old Mikhail Ryumin. In the Murmansk region, 56-year-old Alexander Zaitsev was arrested. In the Irkutsk region, 62-year-old Andrey Merkuryev was arrested. One of the hired drivers was reportedly murdered by the Russians. They strangled him to death by tightening a zip tie around his neck. The drivers received instructions directing them to stop at specific points where the drones launched automatically. The trucks then had an incendiary/explosive device installed that would detonate after the drones were launched, complicating Russian efforts to investigate the attacks. The drivers believed they were delivering modular homes. The trucks carrying the modular homes are registered to 37-year-old Artem Timofeev, a Ukrainian born in Donetsk. Russian authorities issued a wanted notice for Timofeev, who may be involved in the attack on Belaya airfield. Timofeev had been living in Miass, Chelyabinsk Oblast, for several years and held Russian citizenship. All drivers operating the vehicles during the attacks were detained. One video shows the drones launching at a rate of about one every 30 seconds or so. Each modular home appears to hold about 24 drones. With the number of drones and the rate at which they were launched, the ability to respond to the threat while the drones were on the ground would be severely limited.
Russia's Defense Ministry acknowledged drone strikes against Belaya and Olenya, and that several aircraft caught fire. The ministry claimed it repelled all strikes against the air bases in Amur, Ivanovo, and Ryazan oblasts. Ukraine planned to attack the Ukrainka air base in Amur Oblast, but the truck full of drones caught fire on the Chita-Khabarovsk highway and the attack failed. This strike is the first time Ukraine has tried to attack targets in Siberia with drones.
The drones were launched from locations close to the Russian air bases, which allowed them to evade electronic warfare systems and gave air defenders little time to respond. Systems like the Pantsir, S-300, S-400, and air patrols by helicopters and planes were rendered ineffective by the altitude at which the drones operated and the small amount of time they had available to respond. Ground-based guns like Zu-23s and men armed with rifles also were ineffective.
Russia will struggle to replace the damaged aircraft. A single A-50 costs approximately €457 million, and Russia has fewer than 10 operational A-50s remaining. Russia stopped producing chassis for Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers and cannot replace them. Russia has not built a new Tu-95 or Tu-22 since 1991, and those were ones whose construction began before the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia likely has fewer than 90 operational Tu-22, Tu-95, and Tu-160 bombers in total, according to The Economist. Ukraine once estimated that Russia only had 56 operational Tu-22s and 47 operational Tu-95s. Traditionally, when a plane is damaged or too worn out to continue flight operations, the plane is parked somewhere permanently and used for spare parts, prolonging the lifespan of the remaining fleet. However, fire damage will ruin electronics and metals, reducing the number of spare parts that can be scavenged from damaged craft; this attack will, therefore, shorten the lifespan of the remaining fleet to a degree.
Russia was, with increasing frequency, already using fighter jets instead of strategic bombers to launch cruise missiles, potentially implying that the lifespan and safety of these bombers have already been a concern for the Russian air force. The strikes will likely force Russia to move air defense systems, create and deploy more mobile defense groups, and potentially move their remaining strategic bombers further east for protection when they aren’t being used or prepared for a mission. Not terribly long ago, a Russian blogger pointed out that Russia still has many gun-based air defense systems, specifically Shilkas in storage that could be lightly refurbished and used for point defense at major bases and sites. Russia's ability to conduct long-range missile strikes into Ukraine may be hindered for a while. Russia has begun doing a thorough inspection of trucks, looking to prevent a repeat of the attack. This is going to disrupt military logistics and the regular economy on a grand scale, It is unclear how long these truck inspections may last.
Many feel that this attack represents a turning point in the war, potentially forcing Russia to understand that they cannot win and that the cost of continuing is too great, and that this strike may push them to make concessions at the negotiating table. Osint analyst RALee does not think this is the case, however.
RALee:
“I disagree with this. Ukraine has destroyed or damaged Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS bombers at Russian airbases before, they have repeatedly targeted airbases with Russian strategic aviation (including the recent strike on Engels), large-scale UAV strikes deep into Russian territory (including in the Moscow region) are now common, Ukraine has damaged or destroyed many Russian oil facilities, Ukraine previously did serious damage to the Kerch bridge, Ukraine has killed generals and other officials in Russia, Ukraine struck the Kremlin with a UAV, Ukraine conducted an offensive into Kursk, the Wagner mutiny, etc.
This war has been very costly for Russia and the costs have increased—including many embarrassing episodes—but the war continues. I'm skeptical this will significantly alter Moscow's perception of whether to continue the war because bringing the war to Russia has not led to significant political pressure on Putin and Ukraine is clearly very important to Putin. This strike is important because it will degrade Russia's ability to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine, and will force Russia to shift resources to protect facilities far from Ukraine. Also, the air component is the weakest part of Russia's nuclear triad, and Ukraine has previously targeted these bombers.”
Ukrainian OSINT analyst Tatarigami also discusses this situation.
Tatarigami_UA:
“The main driver of this war remains the situation on the ground — in particular, how far Russia can advance the front line. The scale of the front’s advance largely determines Moscow’s willingness to continue the war. But even in the absence of significant progress, Russia has shown no hesitation in maintaining its war effort. At least for now.
To fundamentally change the situation in Ukraine’s favor, it is necessary to combine stabilization of the front with increasing losses for Russia — not only in financial terms, but also in strategic capabilities. These losses include a decrease in Russia’s ability to project power globally, compete economically with the West and China, and maintain its status as a significant geopolitical power.
Yeah,Today’s attack is a prime example of a strike that, while not directly affecting the battlefield, significantly undermines Russia’s long-term strategic assets—many of which are legacies of the Soviet era and which Russia cannot quickly replace. The loss of early warning radar (AWACS) aircraft, a quarter of the Black Sea Fleet, a significant portion of the Soviet armored arsenal, a significant portion of the attack helicopter fleet, positions in Syria, and now a major strike on strategic aviation—all combine to weaken Russia’s global military assets.
If Ukraine can hold the front line, even if it means gradual tactical retreats from small settlements, while halting Russian forces at the operational-strategic level, then the ever-increasing cost of war may eventually force the Kremlin to acknowledge the sobering reality: continuing the war not only worsens the situation in Ukraine, but also accelerates Russia’s own strategic decline.
The Russian leadership is well aware of this dynamic. The notion that Russia will fight “at any cost” or to the “last Ukrainian soldier” is largely a product of psychological warfare. It is a narrative that Russian propaganda actively promotes to create a sense of inevitability: that Ukraine and the West are doomed to defeat because Russia has boundless endurance.
But this is a myth that history has already disproved. The Khasavyurt agreements of 1996 are a clear example of when Russia was forced to admit its inability to continue the war in Chechnya and eventually agreed to a ceasefire. As then, Russia has limits to its political, economic, and military resilience—despite the image of invincibility it tries to project.”
According to a Bloomberg article, the Kremlin claims that the destruction of these aircraft will not significantly impact Russia’s missile attacks on Ukraine because they do not need very many of them to launch attacks. They added that the destruction of these aircraft does not disrupt Russia’s nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Vasyl Malyuk, Head of the SBU inspecting maps of the bases being targeted by drones
The locations of Tu-95s and Tu-22s that were targeted by the drones.
Map produced by Mediazona to demonstrate the locations of each base that was targeted.
Belaya Air Base burning
Currently, satellite imagery has been able to confirm the loss of 4 Tu-95s and 4 Tu-22Ms at Belaya airbase in Irkutsk.
Color images from Belaya
Here is a map that provides a clearer understanding of the locations of these satellite images.
From Osint Analyst Emil Kastehelmi:
In the coming days, we will continue to assess the losses of Russian aircraft using commercial satellite imagery. Today, images from the Diaghilev base in Ryazan have become available.
Due to licensing terms, I cannot release these images, but I can describe what I see. It appears that the strike on Diaghilev was not particularly successful. The image, taken on June 2, shows no destroyed aircraft or signs of significant damage.
The ground in the eastern part of the airbase was scorched. This occurred 50 meters from the Tu-95MS aircraft, which may indicate an unsuccessful drone strike. Depending on the payload of the drone, it could have caused some damage to the bomber, but it is impossible to assess this more precisely based on the available materials.”
Image provided by Kastehelmi showing the region at Diaghilev where burns were visible
Low resolution satellite imagery of Ukrainka airbase that may show a damaged or destroyed Tu-95. The dark spots on the ground may be the dark spots visible in older, higher-resolution satellite photos. It is unclear, but it is best to wait until more information comes out.
A photo showing one of the trucks carrying 2 of the modular homes with removable roofs at a location near an airfield.
One of the trucks exploding after catching fire on the Chita-Khabarovsk highway in Amur Oblast.
The drones in the secret compartment in one of the modular homes inside the rented warehouse in Chelyabinsk.
One of the drones in mid-air.
A Russian Tu-95 bomber covered in tires exploding, causing the wing to fall off.
Footage from this attack was geolocated at Olenya airfield by @moklasen.
Coordinates: 68.1444168, 33.449137
The footage was also geolocated by DniproOfficial.
A picture of Artem Timofeev, the owner of the trucks used in the attacks.
"The trademark of all hedgehogs is a hooked, rapier-like bill, but they use other tools for killing. The back talon pierces like a bayonet. The rest act like grappling irons, crushing prey with an incredible force."
-David Attenborough