Posts
May 16 2024
Update:
Juraj Cintula, a 71-year-old man suspected of shooting Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, may have ties to Slovenskí Branci, a pro-Russian paramilitary group. Facebook posts by Slovenskí Branci have pictures showing Juraj Cintula participating in the group’s activities. Slovenskí Branci, active since 2012, has connections with the Night Wolves biker gang and former Russian special forces. Zelenskyy condemned the attack on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. Fico was shot multiple times during the incident but is in stable condition.
Update:
There is more information about the attack on the Belbek airfield that damaged the Russian air defense system.
This was reported by Russian blogger dosye_shpiona:
“Regarding the attack on the Belbek airfield.
Tonight, May 15, 2024, a missile attack was carried out on the Belbek airfield near Sevastopol.
10 ATACMS ballistic missiles were fired towards the airfield. It is worth noting that the command to detect targets was given two minutes before the actual strike.
Losses:
• Airfield fuel and lubricants warehouse;
• Two S-400 air defense missile launchers;
• Radar “92N6E”;
• MiG-31 damaged;
• 3 MiG-27s damaged.
7 servicemen from units of the 27th mixed aviation division ( military unit 46434, Sevastopol ) and the 31st air defense division ( military unit 03121, Sevastopol ) were killed. Another 12 were injured of varying degrees of severity.
UPD. 3 Su-27 instead of MiG-27. I apologize for the mistake.”
Ukraine launched yet another attack on Belbek airfield, this time reportedly hitting fuel tanks there. The Russian MoD reported downing 5 missiles. Several videos and photos show intensely burning fires at the air base. NASA FIRMS satellite data also show a large fire on the premises of the airbase.
Ukrainian drones targeted a Russian defense company called "Basalt" in Tula at night. The Ministry of Defense stated they destroyed two UAVs, but not all. Basalt is a Russian defense company that produces weapons and ammunition for ground, air, and naval forces, with its main facility in Moscow and production branches in Tula.
Romanian Prime Minister Marcel CIolacu said that the decision to transfer a patriot system to Ukraine will be taken in the Supreme Council of National Defense. CIolacu said he is pleased with the way Moscow reacted because “It means that we matter and it has fears that the world is mobilizing against the dictator Putin," he emphasized.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the US will provide a new military aid package worth $2 billion, during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba
Additionally, Blinken said that the US does not encourage Ukraine to strike targets in Russia, but the decision is up to Kyiv and they no longer prohibit such attacks. This will now give Ukraine the greenlight to strike Russian targets inside of Russian territory with American weapons at Ukraine’s discretion.
Blinken:
“We do not encourage and do not provide capabilities for strikes outside of Ukraine, but in the end, Ukraine must decide for itself how to wage this war. This war is being waged to protect the freedom and sovereignty of Ukraine."
The Estonian Parliament overwhelmingly approved a law allowing for frozen Russian assets to be used for Ukraine. Margus Tsahkna, Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs said he hopes the president will sign it into law as soon as possible.
In defiance of Russia, Moldova and the EU are set to deepen cooperation with intelligence sharing, carrying out joint military exercises, and be included in the EU’s joint weapons procurement. In March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave Moldova an ultimatum where he said he will “defend” The Russian population in Moldova, or Moldova risks “following in the footsteps of Ukraine.”
Zelenskyy canceled his visit to Spain and Portugal that were planned for this week because of the critical internal situation in Ukraine at the moment. It’s not clear when this visit will be rescheduled.
Ukrainian missile strikes hit Russian airfields in Crimea on May 15. Explosions were heard in Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, and Simferopol. About six explosions were reported near Belbek Airfield, with video footage showing a significant fire at the airfield. Unconfirmed rumors say that fuel tanks were hit and that ATACMS were used. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed 5 missiles were shot down. There were also unconfirmed rumors that Magura naval drones were launched from the Odesa area towards Crimea.
The EU has agreed to ban the broadcasting of Russia-controlled media outlets RIA Novosti, Izvestia, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, and the Voice of Europe in the EU.
German defense company Rheinmetall, intends to establish a new repair and production facility for air defense systems in Ukraine, as announced by CEO Armin Papperger on May 15. Production could start within one to two years. The facility will also serve as a repair base for IRIS-T, Skynex, and Gepard air defense platforms.
Czech President Petr Pavel stated on May 15 that Ukraine's goal of reclaiming all occupied territories through military means in the foreseeable future is naive. He emphasized the need to end the war first and then settle Ukraine's control over its sovereign territory through a future agreement. Pavel emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine including increasing ammunition and military equipment supplies. He reiterated Russia's goals of capturing Ukraine and removing its elected government. He said that Russia must understand that there is no military solution to the war, that they cannot conquer Ukraine and that any future peace agreement must involve Ukraine's consent, and take into account Ukraine’s interests.
On May 15, the Russian army conducted 37 attacks on the border of Sumy Oblast, resulting in 183 explosions. The attacks included mortar and tubed artillery fire in Bilopillia hromada, leading to one casualty. In Esman hromada, mortars, MLRS, and tube artillery were used, resulting in a civilian fatality. Znob-Novhorodske hromada experienced mortar and artillery attacks, while Novoslobidska hromada saw six mines dropped. Velyka Pysarivka hromada faced mortar and artillery assaults, including a rocket-propelled grenade dropped from a UAV. Seredyna-Buda hromada witnessed mortar and artillery strikes, and Krasnopillia hromada faced FPV drone and mortar attacks. Additionally, MLRS strikes occurred in Druzhba hromada, causing one injury, while Khotin hromada was targeted with MLRS and mortar fire. Shalyhyne hromada experienced an FPV drone strike.
Russia aunched an attack on Mykolaiv on May 15, landing two hits with ballistic missiles and injuring six people. Russia attacked the frontline village of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on May 15, injuring three people. The attack occurred at 15:45, resulting in the destruction of an administrative building. Two inspectors and repairmen of train cars, Serhii Derevytskyi and Oleksandr Prykhodko, were killed in a Russian attack on civilian railway infrastructure, as reported by the press service of Ukrzaliznytsia on Telegram.
Russian forces are capturing Ukrainian civilians and preventing their evacuation in the northern part of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, according to Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko. There have been reports of executions of civilians by Russian soldiers. Despite ongoing firefights, Ukrainian police officers are continuing evacuations. The UN has verified over 30,000 civilian casualties from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the real number likely higher due to limited monitoring in occupied territories.
The Russians launched an attack on the village of Vovchansk using cluster bombs during rescue efforts by volunteers and emergency services. Five people were injured, including two medics, two drivers, and the head of the Vovchansk city military administration, as reported by Oleg Sinegubov.
The Russian offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast has slowed down after initial gains in less defended areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and military officials confirm partial stabilization of the situation there. Ukrainian's militart reports they are preventing Russian footholds from expanding in Lukyantsi and Vovchansk through counterattacks, artillery, and drone strikes. Russian shelling endangers Ukrainian fortification attempts within 3-5 km of the border. Major defenses have been established about 12 to 20 kilometers from the border. Russian forces have only advanced about eight kilometers into Kharkiv Oblast, leaving Ukrainian defenders trying to prevent further advances vulnerable to artillery strikes from inside Russia.
Russian forces have recently advanced near Vovchansk, with geolocated footage showing movement in the northern Starytsya area southwest of Vovchansk. Reports indicate ongoing fighting for Starytsya. Ukrainian military spokespersons confirm Russian entry into Vovchansk and efforts by small Russian infantry groups to establish footholds in the northern part of the town. Battles persist on the northern outskirts of Vovchansk, with Ukrainian forces relocating to more strategic positions to safeguard personnel. Russian forces launched ground attacks southwest of Vovchansk near Izbitske and Buhruvatka.
Deepstate reports that the engineering and fortification training in the Kharkiv region appears to be facing significant issues, as evidenced by the unprepared defensive lines near Liptsy, only 10 km from the Ukrainian state border. Dragons teeth have reportedly been laying in a pile next to the road neglected since the summer of 2023. The situation underscores not just a lack of engineering and fortification structures, but also their poor preparation and incompetent execution. This may have been misrepresented to higher authorities leading to potentially dangerous assumptions about the readiness of defensive lines. Reports indicate that other fortifications in the region are similarly under-equipped or unfinished, raising concerns about negligence and the risk of casualties.
Contracts worth $9.2 million for supplying wood for fortifications in Kharkiv Oblast are under scrutiny due to concerns of corruption. Investigations suggest that 6 contracted companies might be fake, with money possibly being funneled to individuals with criminal records. The companies were selected by the Kharkiv Military Administration; there was no open bidding for the contracts. Accusations of either theft or deliberate sabotage have been levied. The military denies these claims, stating that the best-equipped fortifications are farther from the front line due to constant shelling. Local government representatives claim that fortifications exist but admit they might not be sufficient. It is unclear at the moment who is ultimately responsible for making sure defenses were sufficient.
Politico reports that Russian oil is reaching the EU via Turkey via a loophole in EU sanctions. This loophole allows blended fuels, including Russian-origin ones to be sold in Europe. The scheme has reportedly earned Moscow up to €3 billion in a year. Turkey's imports of Russian fuel surged by 105% after the EU's ban, and its exports to the EU rose 107%. Ports like Ceyhan show signs of re-exporting Russian fuel to the EU.
France and the Netherlands want to penalize financial institutions aiding Russia's military purchases. They propose banning cooperation with banks involved in transactions supporting Russia's defense industry. This idea will be discussed at an EU ambassadors' meeting, part of efforts to create the 14th set of sanctions against Russia. Hungary and possibly Germany might object due to potential harm to their business ties with China.
The High Anti-Corruption Court of Ukraine has seized two two An-148-100E passenger aircraft. owned by the Russian company Ilyushin Finance Co. and transferred them to the state. Ilyushin Finance Co., part of the Rostec state corporation, manages aircraft leasing and plays a crucial role in Russia's aviation industry.
Russia's April exports of crude and petroleum products dropped to levels last seen in late-2023 due to Ukrainian drone attacks and planned output cuts. The country exported 7.3 million barrels a day last month, marking a 6.4% drop from March and the lowest level in five months. Product flows decreased by nearly 15% to 2.3 million barrels a day from March. Despite higher oil and fuel prices, Russia earned $17.2 billion from oil exports in April, down from $18.4 billion in March.
The new Dutch government, headed by the far-right Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders, has declared it will continue political and military support for Ukraine.
The US Helsinki Commission:
“Russia's imminent advance on Kharkiv threatens the lives of over a million civilians & jeopardizes Ukraine's defense. The US must not only allow but encourage the UAF to strike RU forces firing & staging in RF borders and share intelligence to prevent massive loss of life.”
Quote of the Day:
“And if the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill
And if your head explodes with dark forebodings too
I'll see you on the dark side of the hedgehog”
-Pink Floyd, Dark Side of the Hedgehog