Posts
August 1-2 2024
On August 1, 2024, an “ambitious” prisoner exchange took place in Ankara, Turkey, involving 26 prisoners from the US, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway, Russia, and Belarus. The exchange was coordinated by Turkey's National Intelligence Organization. The Telegraph called it the biggest prisoner swap between the US and Russia since the end of the Cold War.
Released by Russia:
1. Evan Gershkovich (USA)
2. Vladimir Kara-Murza (USA)
3. Lilia Chanycheva (USA)
4. Ilya Yashin (Germany)
5. Ksenia Fadeeva (Germany)
6. Andrei Pivovarov (Germany)
7. Paul Whelan (USA)
8. Alsu Kurmasheva (USA)
9. Oleg Orlov (Germany)
10. Alexandra Skochilenko (Germany)
11. Demuri Voronin (USA)
12. Kevin Lik (USA)
13. Rick Krieger (Germany)
14. Patrick Schoebel (Germany)
15. Herman Moyzhes (Germany)
16. Vadim Ostanin (Germany)
Released by Western countries:
1. Vadim Krasikov (released from Germany)
2. Artem Dultsev (released from Slovenia)
3. Anna Dultseva (released from Slovenia)
4. Mikhail Mikushin (released from Norway)
5. Pavel Rubtsov (released from Poland)
6. Roman Seleznev (released from USA)
7. Vladislav Klyushin (released from USA)
8. Vadim Konoshchenok (released from USA)
At night, there was a strike in Crimea. Reportedly, Ukraine used several ATACMS missiles to hit a target in the Sevastopol area. At least 2 missiles seem to have been intercepted, and photos have been published of ATACMS debris showing that the hundreds of submunitions from one missile landed in a populated area. Another set of pictures claims to be debris ATACMS missile that hit a residential building and crashed through the roof. The staff of The Daily Hog have not seen any reports of casualties. NASA FIRMS satellite imagery shows a fire to the Southeast of Sevastopol, in an area with revetments for an air defense system. There are reports that 4 launchers and a 92N6 radar from an S-400 were hit. A video was published showing the launch of 5 ATACMS missiles, Russian sources claim 8 were fired and all were shot down. Russian blogger kremlin_secrets reports 2 air defense systems were “lost” in this strike. They specify that an S-300 was destroyed and 3 crew members were killed. They also reported that Saki was attacked by drones, two soldiers were killed and five more were wounded. “Valuable electronic equipment was lost” at Saki.
A series of photos were published on telegram showing a very large Ukrainian drone that had been shot down. The drone as armed with a 125-mm BK-3OF laser-guided missile, which bears similarities to the RK-3OF Corsair anti-tank missile designed by the Ukrainian Luch State Kyiv Design Bureau. The BK-3OF should be powerful enough to penetrate tank armor, and has tail rudders to help guide it to its target.
According to a Forbes article, Ukraine is using over 100,000 explosive drones monthly. Recently, a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully brought down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Donetsk for the first time. Forbes reported that the drone that landed the strike weighed less than 2 pounds and that Ukraine had been attempting such a strike for 10 months. The crash site of the helicopter was just east of Donetsk city itself, about 30km from the front. Forbes reports that the drone likely had a second drone functioning as a repeater, to increase its operating range. The helicopter was struck while taking off and was fairly close to the ground. The photo showing its destruction that has been published shows the vehicle was thoroughly destroyed.
China is imposing stricter controls on the export of military drones starting September 1, 2024. Drones that can be used in warfare are supposedly going to be banned. China currently insists it does not export drones to either side of the conflict and strictly controls the export of dual-use goods.
Milblogger and military tech expert Serhii Flash:
“Flash Many media outlets wrote that starting September 1, China will completely ban the export of drones that can be used in war.
But this is delusional because all drones can be used in war. And the country that produces 90% of "wedding drones" cannot leave the whole world without them.
If we look for information more deeply, we find information from the Chinese authorities about which drones will fall under the export ban…Restrictions will apply to drones that can fly beyond the natural sight distance of operators or stay aloft for more than 30 minutes, have attachments that can throw objects and weigh more than 7 kilograms (15½ pounds), according to the ministry.”
The SBU has arrested two Russian GRU agents, including a Moscow Patriarchate priest, for planning attacks on the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The priest is a Russian citizen and provided intel on Ukrainian military train schedules and documents with the help of a local Ukrainian Railways employee. They communicated with a GRU handler using encrypted messages and emojis. Both suspects were arrested and they face up to 12 years in prison.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb, in an interview with Le Monde, called for immediate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, stating that Russia’s situation is worsening and Putin underestimated Western resolve. He added that China and the global South should be involved in the peace process.
Austria’s Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg condemned the suggestions from some Western leaders that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia for peace, calling such demands unacceptable. He stressed that Ukraine should make its own decisions about negotiations, emphasizing that peace cannot be dictated to or imposed upon Ukraine.
On July 31, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy staid that Russian representatives need to be involved in the upcoming peace summit to make progress in ending the war. He reiterated that Ukraine's main condition for negotiations is the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territories. Zelenskyy expressed concerns about ceding territory to Russia, arguing it might lead to future conflicts. He also expressed doubt about China as a mediator, saying it should apply to pressure Russia instead. He said that China has “the power to compel Russia to stop this war.”
Georgia’s new “foreign agents” law went into effect on August 1 and requires organizations receiving over 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “agents of foreign influence.” The law sparked widespread protests and international backlash, with critics comparing it to similar Russian laws used to suppress dissent.
On August 1, Moldova declared a Russian embassy staff member in Chișinău persona non grata. The diplomat has 48 hours to leave Moldova. This action follows recent searches by Moldovan authorities at the parliament, leading to the detention of a parliament member and a border police officer for suspected treason. They were reportedly collecting and sending information to the Russian embassy. In July 2023, Moldova expelled 45 Russian diplomats due to concerns about surveillance and interference.
Ukraine will soon receive a nearly $3.9 billion grant from the US to support its state budget. This funding will cover salaries for public sector workers and support social expenses. This is the first tranche of direct budgetary support from the US in 2024. The total US aid for 2024 is $7.8 billion. The grant is part of the World Bank’s PEACE in Ukraine project, which has already provided over $25 billion since June 2022. More than 80% of those funds came from the US.
Ukraine has begun receiving information about its POWs from Russia, starting with an exchange of postcards during the last prisoner swap. Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets called for the International Red Cross to be given access to prisoners held in Russia. There have been 54 prisoner swaps including over 3,400 Ukrainian citizens returned since the full-scale invasion began. Oleksandr Ishchenko, a 55-year-old Ukrainian POW from the Azov Brigade, has died in Rostov-on-Don. Ishchenk was a sailor who joined the Azov Brigade and was captured during the Mariupol siege. He had been held in Russian prison for over a year. No official information about his death or its cause was provided by Russian authorities. Dmytro Lubinets has requested an investigation from the Russian Ombudsman and notified the ICRC and the UN.
On July 31, a Ukrainian firefighter from the Kharkiv Region had to respond to a Russian strike that hit his own home in Velykyi Burluk. At the scene, he found out his wife was dead and his 10-year-old son had to be hospitalized because of burns.
A video shows a Wagner mercenary among Venezuelan police during protests against President Nicolás Maduro, who recently declared victory in a contested election. Wagner soldiers have previously provided security and training in Venezuela. Wagner also provided security for Maduro during protests in 2019.
On August 1, a major fire erupted at an oil refinery in Omsk, Russia, affecting the AVT-10 unit and spreading over 300 square meters. The cause of the fire is unknown. The fire may shut the plant down for weeks or even months.
A video was published supposedly showing the Russians using a hybrid Ak-130 naval gun combined with an M-46 artillery piece. The video shows an A3-UF-44 130mm high-explosive fragmentation round being loaded into the gun. The Ak-130 is normally mounted onto naval ships, but the gun hasn’t been mounted on new ships in years. These Frankenstein artillery pieces are likely produced to compensate for battlefield losses. Russia should have a fairly large number of these AK-130 guns in storage. There is some doubt about the authenticity of this claim as the AK-130 has some distinct differences that were not visible in the video.
President Zelenskyy announced an upcoming government reorganization aimed at improving recovery and reconstruction and increasing the number of students who can attend school in person. He also mentioned upcoming negotiations for security agreements.
Ukraine managed to destroy a Russian RBU-6000 anti-submarine MLRS that was mounted onto the chassis of a T-72.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has signed contracts worth about $90 million with domestic manufacturers for ground-based kamikaze drones and ammunition.
Ukraine can produce over 3 million drones annually according to Anna Gvozdіar, the Deputy Minister of Strategic Industries and Production. The Ukrainian government funds part of the effort, additional are needed from partners and allies. Some countries, such as Canada have pledged to fund the purchase of some of these drones. Each of these drones will also require a payload/warhead and Ukraine is working to standardize and mass-produce these.
Ukraine is developing a towed version of the 155-mm Bohdana self-propelled gun. The new howitzer will be mounted on a Soviet artillery system carriage, such as the Msta-B, Giatsint-B, or D-20. The towed version is supposed to be more compact, easier to operate, easier to maintain, and harder to spot than the self-propelled system. It has been previously reported that Ukraine’s gun production outpaced the production of the vehicle the Bohdana is based around. This step may increase the overall number of 155mm systems Ukraine can produce per month.
British volunteers have donated 20 civilian vehicles to Ukraine through the British-Ukrainian Aid charitable foundation. These vehicles, which include models like Mitsubishi L200, Toyota Hilux, among others and will go to various Ukrainian units, including the National Guard, border guards, and medical services. The contribution was made under London’s ULEZ program.
Serhii Flash:
"Lots of questions about enemy FPV frequencies.
Of the 100% drones on the fronts, 90% continue to fly at 720-1020 and will fly in the near future. If the FPVs reach the target and are not hindered by the Ukrainian electronic warfare system, there is no point in changing the frequency of the enemy.
Changing frequencies means new antennas, new control modules, etc
10% are ranges 2.4, 433, 500, etc. They appear where our EW is very active and interferes with the enemy, where special units work, where long flights are needed.
In theory, they can fly in the 150 MHz -2700 MHz range."
Ukrainian soldier BaluHub777:
“The Southern Defense Forces continue to inflict fire on the enemy's locations, firing positions and rear.
During the day, it was confirmed that the number of enemy personnel decreased by 72 people.
️ The enemy also lost 37 units of weapons and military equipment, including
2 tanks
12 guns
6 units of automotive equipment
5 reconnaissance UAVs
4 portable electronic warfare stations
3 mortars
2 boats
3 units of motorized vehicles
1 UAV control center, 1 "Molniya" UAV launcher, 4 storage sites for material and technical resources, 4 field ammunition storage sites, 1 observation post, 3 dugouts were destroyed.
Quote of the Day:
“Fame is a vapor, popularity is an accident, riches take wings, those who cheer today may curse tomorrow and only one thing endures - hedgehogs.”
― Harry Truman