September 3 2024


President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine plans to hold onto Russian territories seized in Kursk to pressure Russia into negotiations and to function as a form of leverage.


According to Reuters, the U.S. is nearing a deal to supply Ukraine with Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs). The U.S. is expected to announce the inclusion of JASSMs in a weapons package for Ukraine this autumn, though a final decision has not yet been made. This would require several months of technical preparations. JASSMs could alter the conflict by allowing strikes against military bases and logistics hubs up to 300 km inside Russia. The missiles would be used with Ukraine’s future F-16s, and efforts are underway to adapt them for Ukrainian MiG-29s, Su-24s, and Su-27s.

The JASSM is considered to be at least somewhat stealthy. There is a longer-range version which can reach up to 500 km. Each newer JASM costs about $1 million and JASSMs are armed with a 1,000-pound warhead. JASSMs use GPS and inertial navigation for guidance, with an infrared imaging seeker for accurate targeting, allowing them to strike within about 10 feet of where they were aimed. Despite older models being less resistant to electronic warfare, their stealth and guidance systems have proven effective; they successfully evaded Russian air defenses in Syria.


Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umierov met with French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu in Paris to discuss the war and to increase France’s support for Ukraine. Umierov’s priorities include air defense systems, long-range weapons, combat aircraft, electronic warfare equipment, drones, artillery, and ammunition. The ministers also discussed deepening cooperation between the Ukrainian and French defense industries, focusing on creating joint ventures and co-financing production. There are already specific projects, action plans, and deadlines figured out.


The Gazpromneft Moscow refinery suspended operations at its Euro+ combined refining unit, which includes a CDU-6 crude distillation unit, due to a fire caused by a drone attack on September 1. The refining unit processed about 50% of the plant's capacity and may resume operations in five to six days. In 2023, the Moscow refinery processed 11.6 million tons of crude oil. This processing produced various petroleum products, including 2.6 million tons of gasoline, 3.3 million tons of gasoil, 2.3 million tons of fuel oil, and 0.9 million tons of jet fuel. In 2023, the Moscow refinery processed 11.6 million tons of crude oil. This processing produced various petroleum products, including 2.6 million tons of gasoline, 3.3 million tons of gasoil, 2.3 million tons of fuel oil, and 0.9 million tons of jet fuel.


Military trucks belonging to Russia's 12th Main Directorate, responsible for nuclear weapons, have been seen moving through Crimea. These vehicles were spotted in Kerch and across the Kerch Peninsula. Russian propaganda has falsely claimed Ukraine is planning attacks on nuclear power plants and is planning to detonate a dirty bomb. Andriy Kovalenko from Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation suggests this may indicate a Russian attempt at staging a nuclear incident.


A member of Ukraine’s parliament Artem Dmytruk, who illegally crossed the Ukrainian-Moldovan border and fled to Italy, was reportedly spotted at a shopping center in London on September 1. Dmytruk had previously been charged with assaulting a law enforcement officer and a serviceman. A video shows a person resembling Dmytruk interacting with a store clerk at Westfield London. A Woman resembling Dmytruk's wife, Anastasia, and a child resembling their daughter were also present at the store.


Last week, emergency teams evacuated 149 people from Pokrovsk district in Donetsk. They also delivered 184 m³ of drinking water, 4 m³ of “technical” water, and 20.75 tons of humanitarian aid to the region.


A Russian missile strike on Poltava killed at least 51 people and injured over 200. The attack targeted a military training facility and a nearby hospital with two Iskander ballistic. Extensive damage was reported, including to the Poltava Military Institute of Communication. The strike is among the deadliest since the war began. Reportedly the attack came as people were heading to the bomb shelter after receiving a missile warning.

On August 31, Russia used the Grom-E1 missile for the first time in Kharkiv since the start of its full-scale invasion. The Grom-E1 has a 315-kg warhead and a range of up to 120 kilometers and was part of an attack that also included other weapons. The August 31 strike damaged civilian infrastructure and injured a 13-year-old and a 20-year-old.

On August 25, 2024, Russian troops attacked a hotel in Kramatorsk, killing Reuters journalist Ryan Evans and injuring others. Reporters Without Borders suspects the attack was aimed at journalists and plans to file a lawsuit. Russian officials denied targeting the hotel, but Russian propagandists claimed the journalists killed and injured in the attack illegally entered Russia to cover the Kursk invasion, and that is why they were targeted. The attack is part of a broader pattern of 620 attacks against journalists reported since the full-scale invasion began. These attacks resulted in the deaths of 84 media workers, 10 of whom died while reporting.

On September 2, Russia attacked Kharkiv and Ruska Lozova, injuring at least twelve people. A guided aerial bomb hit Ruska Lozova, damaging a private residence and injuring one person. In Kharkiv, two guided bombs struck a garage cooperative, causing a fire and injuring four women. The attacks injured eleven people and damaged private homes, garages, and a sports facility. A Russian missile attack on Dnipro killed a 51-year-old man and injured at least six others, damaging residential buildings, cars, and a kindergarten. Later that evening, another Russian strike on Zaporizhzhya killed two, including an 8-year-old boy, and injured two others. This attack occurred shortly after Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof visited Zaporizhzhya with President Zelenskyy.


EU officials warn that Iran might soon supply ballistic missiles to Russia. Such a transfer could trigger new sanctions against Iran and increase the number of attacks on Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure.


On September 2, Romania's upper parliament approved a bill to transfer a Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine, with 101 senators in favor and 13 against. On September 3, Romania's lower house approved a bill to transfer a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine. President Klaus Iohannis will sign the law, and Romania will replace the system with a similar one from its allies. Romania will still retain six Patriot systems for its own defense.


Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna believes it's the right time to discuss inviting Ukraine to NATO, citing Ukraine's war experience and institutional stability. She hopes for an invitation before the 2025 NATO summit.


Azerbaijan's state oil company Socar has begun supplying gas to Croatia, making it the tenth European country to receive Azerbaijani gas. Ukraine has offered to let Azerbaijan use its gas transportation infrastructure to carry gas to Europe after the current deal with Russia ends, at the end of 2024.


Finland's government is proposing a ban on most Russian citizens from buying property in the country to protect national security, according to Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen. The ban would not apply to dual citizens or Russians with permanent residency in Finland or other EU countries.


Ukraine is preparing a plan for defense industry exports, potentially generating up to $2 billion in additional tax revenue within a year and a half. A working group is being established to develop export mechanisms and regulations. Ukraine’s defense industry is capable of producing up to $20 billion in arms and equipment but is only contracted for $6 billion due to a lack of funding. Allowing exports would allow for greater productivity, expansion of production lines, and potentially cheaper equipment for Ukraine in larger quantities.


Ukraine successfully targeted a Russian S-300V air defense system, hitting its radar with two GMLRS rockets and destroying a launcher with a kamikaze drone. This S-300 was spotted by the Shadow unit which was using a Shark UAV provided by the Come Back Alive Foundation. The S-300V was adopted in 1988 and has received multiple updates/modernizations since then. It is designed to protect against cruise missiles, aircraft, and ballistic missiles. Oryx has documented the loss of 6 S-300V launchers and 3 S-300V radars, not counting the ones destroyed in this strike.


The Russian Aerospace Forces received the third batch of three Su-34 aircraft in 2024, for a total of seven Su-34s delivered this year. This delivery was two months after the previous batch, potentially reflects increased production rates, but overall the number delivered for the year isn’t significantly different from prior years. Some older estimates say they may be able to produce up to 12 per year.


Croatia provided Ukraine with a certificate for a DOK-ING MV-4 mine clearance system, allowing Ukraine to receive one for free from the manufacturer. Several of these demining machines are in use inside Ukraine already.


Norway will donate $53 million to the UK-managed International Fund for Ukraine, focusing on drone and air defense procurement.


On September 2, Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal announced that the IMF mission in Kyiv has begun the fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility program, potentially leading to another $1.1 billion in loans for Ukraine this year. Discussions covered reforms, progress, and the use of frozen Russian assets.


The Khmelnytskyi community delivered 20 units of drone detection equipment and a powerful stationary electronic warfare system, costing a total of $54,000. This is funded by taxpayers, Since the start of the year, Khmelnytskyi has provided over 130 units of electronic warfare and surveillance gear. Khmelnytskyi is also continuing to distribute FPV drones and other UAVs through the Grant Assistance Program, funding their purchase and assembly for the military. The stationary EW system is likely a Kvertus MS Azimuth.


Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof announced a €200 million aid package for Ukraine during his first visit to the country on September 2. The funds will support energy infrastructure repairs and humanitarian aid.


Currently, under the Czech Ammunition Initiative, the cost of a 155mm artillery shell is approximately $3,200. This price includes refurbishment, such as replacing old primers and propellent charges, added security, and shipping costs.



Ukrainian manufacturer Kvertus has introduced the Aero Azimuth signal intelligence system, designed to detect and target enemy drones. Deployed on an aerostat/large balloon, it can identify radio sources from 60 km away and triangulate from 24-30 km. The Aero Azimuth will allow Ukraine to more effectively target drone and UAV operators. The system can remain aloft for 7 days, handle winds up to 15 m/s, and carry 4-25 kg payloads. It operates at 300-700 meters altitude.


On September 2, Ukraine's Defense Ministry announced that the new Khorunzhiy armored personnel carrier, a modernized version of the Soviet BTR-60, has been approved for use by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Khorunzhiy features improved ballistic protection capable of withstanding 7.62 mm bullets and large-caliber machine gun fire. It includes modern electronics, video surveillance, air conditioning, and an autonomous generator, allowing the vehicle to function when the engine is turned off. The vehicle is armed with either a 14.5 mm machine gun or a 30×113 mm cannon and is powered by a 330-horsepower diesel engine, can reach speeds of over 80 km/h and has a range of over 500 kilometers. It comes in six variants, including transport, APC, medical evacuation, armored recovery vehicles, self-propelled mortars, and command vehicles. The hull and armor are rated to protect soldiers from a blast equivalent to 6kg of TNT. Also, the original door has been replaced by a larger rear hatch for easier ingress and egress.


There are numerous reports of shakeups in the Ukrainian government, with several resignations and replacements these will be covered in the next issue. This one is already probably too long.


Russian soldier motopatriot:

“Things are a bit bad in Kursk, so we'll keep quiet for now.
…
From the places, Durovka is behind us, Olgovka too, but so far the Khohol is rolling in. Malaya Loknya is left by our forces.”

Ukrainian mapper/blogger Ptrenko_IHS

    “Ugledar direction. The enemy, supported by armored vehicles, advanced west of Pavlovka in a sector up to 5.78 km wide and up to 4.17 km deep, occupying the eastern and central parts of Prechistovka. Fighting for the settlement continues.
In the area of the Yuzhnodonbasskaya No. 1 mine and on the eastern outskirts of Vodyanoye, the intensity of military operations remains high; the enemy is pressing with the support of armored vehicles and operational-tactical aviation.
In the Kurakhovsky direction, clashes continue in the area of Konstantinovka and Maksimilyanovka.
In the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled a number of attacks in the Galitsynovka area, east of Selidovo, east of mine No. 2 "Novogrodovskaya", near Krasny Yar and in Grodovka.
Kursk region. In the Sudzhansky district, the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced in Russkaya Konopelka and drove Russian troops east of Martynovka beyond the Sudzha-Pushkarnoye highway, taking up positions in a forested area.
In the Korenevsky district, fighting continues east of Aleksandrovka, near Korenevo, and in the Komarovka area.”

Ukrainian soldier officeralex_33

    “We have a small replenishment of the exchange fund for yesterday in the Kurakhove direction, about 10 [Russian POWs]. All thanks to the excellent cooperation between the military branches.

It seemed like nothing unusual, but this is the area where the enemy is trying to advance, while our guys are taking prisoners.”
…
“The [Russians] have the order to take Pokrovsk by October 1, so the assaults on our positions in Selidovo do not stop, but to a large extent it is useless, our guys have established a defense, they have already crushed the [Russians], the enemy cannot develop success, so the number of refusals in the [Russian] units is gradually increasing.

Yes, the situation there is far from sweet for us, but there is no smell of an “easy capture of Selidovo” at all, we are hanging around the outskirts.

However, the main events are still ahead.”
…
“In recent days, there has been a lot of assault activity in the Ugledarsk direction.

The enemy is trying to advance in 3 sections: Kostyantynivka, Vodyane and Prechistivka, with partial success. The most difficult thing is now in the area of Prechistivka, where the enemy managed to advance.”
…
Yesterday, the enemy used about 50 units of equipment for assaults in the Vugledarsky direction throughout the day.”

Quote of the Day:

    “The immature think that knowledge and action are different, but the hedgehogs see them as the same.”

― Anonymous, Bhagavad Gita