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October 16 2024

It was confirmed that the pilot of a Russian Su-25 that was downed likely by friendly fire near Bakhmut on October 2, was killed in the shooting down of his plane. The aircraft belonged to the 960th Assault Aviation Regiment. Pilot Lt. Colonel Igor Gaivoronsky.


The deputy commander of the Special Operations Forces Training Center of the Russian Armed Forces, Nikita Klenkov, was shot dead in the village of Melenko near Moscow. He had returned from fighting in Ukraine about a week ago. He was killed in his Hyundai Palisade near the Training Center where he served. Reports suggest Klenkov was shot eight times, and authorities are searching for a gray Mitsubishi Outlander in connection with the murder. He was linked to military unit 43292 and had connections to the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.


Ukraine successfully conducted 3 Himars strikes on Russian training grounds in Zaporizhzhia over the past 2 days.


New satellite imagery showed minor damage to an ammo depot in Kotluban, in the Volgograd region. The strike was carried out on September 29. The damage was previously unknown. The building is relatively new, built during the summer of 2021, and it does not show up on Google Maps.



Ukraine managed to successfully strike and destroy a Russian 2S7 Pion 203mm self-propelled artillery system near the village of Radensk in Kherson oblast. Footage shows it exploding and burning heavily.


The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia has now lost more than 9,000 tanks in the war.

The United States announced a new $425 million aid package. This is the 67th tranche of equipment provided under the presidential drawdown authority.

The package includes:

    • NASAMS missiles;
    • RIM-7 missiles and support for air defense;
    • Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
    • Ammunition for the HIMARS;
    • Air-to-ground munitions;
    • 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
    • TOW missiles;
    • Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
    • Humvees
    • Small arms and ammunition;
    • Grenades, thermals, and training equipment;
    • Demolitions equipment and munitions; and
    • Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.




An unnamed Ukrainian company plans to build a factory for RDX/hexogen explosives in Lithuania, according to the Ministry of Economy. They have signed an agreement to start construction next year, the location has not been disclosed yet. The Lithuanian government has set aside land for this and other defense projects with Ukraine, including discussions on drones and other technologies. RDX/Hexogen is an explosive used in many different types of armaments, including landmines, mortar shells, artillery shells, and more. RDX is the explosive in C-4 and RDX is more explosive than equivalent quantities of TNT.


The meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine, originally set for October 12 in Germany, will now be held online in November, where leaders will coordinate additional assistance for Ukraine.


Australia will provide Ukraine with 49 M1A1 tanks as part of a new $245 million military aid package. Defense Minister Pat Conroy announced this during his visit to London. The tanks are being decommissioned from the Australian Army and require light refurbishment before being shipped. Australia’s M1A1 tanks are considered to be in good condition. It’s unclear if the M19 reactive armor kits Australia has ordered for these tanks will be delivered as well. During their service with the Australian military, the tanks received the Situational Awareness upgrade, which includes better optics and sights, a battlefield management system that lets tanks share real-time information about friendlies and enemies, a tracking system to avoid friendly fire, and includes a thermal imager for the Browning M2 machine gun.


France has successfully tested a kamikaze drone developed by NEXTER. The drone is based on the civilian Delair Tech UX11 model. It has a wingspan of 1.1 meters and a weight of up to 1.5 kg, can hit targets up to 5 kilometers away, fly at altitudes of about 2 kilometers, and reach speeds of 60 km/h. The civilian version has a flight time of 59 minutes, but the military version's flight time may be shorter due to the additional weight of a warhead. This drone will soon be provided to Ukraine.


German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed his willingness to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin about a “just peace” in Ukraine. He emphasized that any decision would consider Ukraine's position and involve consultation with its allies. Scholz mentioned the suffering of Russian soldiers, calling them victims of Putin's "imperialist madness." Scholz hopes to speak with Putin before the G20 meeting in Brazil. The Kremlin has indicated Putin's openness to a conversation, though no official request from Berlin has been made. Putin and Scholz held their last discussion in late 2022.


On October 16, the Romanian government approved the training of Ukrainian personnel to operate F-16 fighter jets at the 86th Fetești airbase. Training for the first group of Ukrainian pilots has already started, with practical training expected to begin before the end of the year.


On October 15, France asked the European Commission to do a better job of identifying companies bringing Russian gas to EU ports to stop the rising flow of Russian gas into Europe. France and nine other countries, including Austria and the Czech Republic, want suppliers of Russian liquefied natural gas to clearly show who they are when unloading. Some gas providers need to clearly identify when or how much of their gas originates in Russia.

Despite efforts to reduce Russian oil imports, the Czech Republic has become more dependent on Russian oil in 2023. Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic were given exemptions to the ban on Russian oil imports because they are landlocked, but these exemptions were supposed to be temporary and they were expected to find alternative fuel sources. Belgium also calls for a system to track Russian LNG and better coordination within the EU.


In the first eight months of 2024, Ukraine exported 2.87 million tonnes of food and agricultural products to Italy, worth $766.3 million. Ukraine's early grain harvest this year was 2% lower than last year's, with a projected shortfall in late-harvested crops of 10-15%.

On October 16, the Swiss Federal Council approved the final remaining portions of the EU's 14th sanctions package against Russia, which was introduced in June. These measures tighten restrictions on exporting goods that help support Russia's military capabilities and expand the sanctions list to include 61 legal entities and 27 ships linked to Russia. They also limit banking services and investments in the liquefied natural gas sector and allow Swiss companies to sue sanctioned firms in Swiss courts for losses. Additionally, political parties, NGOs, and media organizations in Switzerland are banned from accepting donations from the Russian government.



Wreckage from a “projectile” was found in northern Moldova, near the Ukrainian border, on October 16. The metal fragments were found near the village of Lencăuţi, about 4 km from the border. Police and prosecutors investigated the site, but it's unclear what kind of projectile it was or when it landed. The nearest town on the Ukrainian side of the border is Mohyliv-Podilskyi.


An Iranian Il-76D cargo plane has landed in Moscow.


The UK Counter Terrorism Policing is investigating a fire at a DHL facility in Birmingham, which was caused by a bomb hidden in a cargo container. This incident happened on July 22 but was only recently reported. There were no injuries. Russian involvement is suspected. The UK authorities are working with European law enforcement to see if this incident is linked to similar events across Europe, as there are concerns it might be part of a larger campaign by Russian agents. For instance, there was also a recent fire at a DHL center in Germany which involved a package sent from Lithuania.


Russia is asking Kazakhstan for help with domestic flights due to a potential shortage of airplanes. The Ministry of Transportation is negotiating with Kazakhstan Airlines to start flights within Russia. Before the war, Russian airlines had 850 aircraft in their fleet, but by early 2023, that number had dropped to 736. The number of available aircraft may be cut in half by 2026 due to sanctions placed on the delivery of Western aircraft and spare parts to Russia. Only 20 aircraft are expected to be made in Russia in 2025, down from the original expectation of 82. In 2026, they expect to make 97 aircraft instead of 120, and in 2027, 180 aircraft are expected to be produced instead of 140.


On October 16, President Zelenskyy presented his Victory Plan, which includes five key points. He said that the plan could potentially end the war by next year if implemented with the support of Ukraine's partners, while also pointing out that Russia is unlikely to seek an honest peace while it is led by Putin.
His key points are related to:

    1. NATO Membership
    2. Defense Strengthening
    3. Deterrence
    4. Ukraine's Economic Potential
    5. Post-War Military Integration


Zelenskyy gave a fairly long speech in which he explained his points. It will be included as an addendum of sorts to this issue of The Daily Hog. It is at the bottom of this edition. Just scroll past the Quote of the Day.


Ukrainian soldier Stanislav Osman:

"This morning, there were two mechanized assaults in the Kurakhove direction.

In the first, there were 2 armored vehicles, and now our guys are finishing off the enemy who scattered.

The second one was more interesting:
2 assault tanks, 1 with a mine roller, 4 armored vehicles, and a 'Terminator.'

4 units were destroyed, and the rest managed to retreat in disarray."
…
"In the Kurakhove-Vuhledar direction, another 2 tanks and 3 BMPs attempted an assault. 2 retreated after being hit, and 3 got stuck in the black soil, which can be considered a 'minus.'"



Ukrainians soldier Officeralex_33:

"In Selydove, the enemy has actively started using chemical warfare agents, mostly dropping them from Maviks (drones) with grenades that disperse the substance. Unfortunately, we have casualties from these drops because some soldiers neglected chemical, biological, and radiological protection measures.
…
The Pidars became more active in the Pokrovsky direction: a large amount of equipment is going to Selydovo from the south, as well as a mechanized assault in the Tsukuryne area.
Details later.
…
I have just discussed with a friend who works in the Pokrovsk direction the possible appearance of DPRK troops in our war, and he said:

‘I’m seriously waiting for those Koreans, I swear, they’ll get hit like they’re cursed, but at least we’ll have more interesting targets. Maybe they’ll react differently to FPV drones; when I hit the first one, I’ll definitely send it to you 😂.’

Attitude makes all the difference 😉
Wishing everyone a quiet night 🫡”




Quote of the Day:

“The Sonic Hedgehog (SHH) gene is a crucial gene in the development of animals, including humans. It produces a protein called Sonic Hedgehog, which plays a key role in regulating cell growth, cell differentiation, and the organization of tissues and organs during embryonic development. The SHH protein acts as a signaling molecule that guides the development of structures such as the brain, spinal cord, limbs, and other parts of the body.

The name "Sonic Hedgehog" was inspired by the video game character due to the gene's role in controlling growth patterns that are as precise as the paths Sonic takes in the game. Mutations in the SHH gene can lead to developmental disorders, such as holoprosencephaly (a brain malformation), polydactyly (extra fingers or toes), and other congenital conditions. The SHH pathway is also involved in tissue repair.”







The Zelenskyy speech Addendum

Russia must lose the war against Ukraine.

And this is not a "freeze."

And it is not trading Ukraine's territory or sovereignty.

We must implement the Victory Plan to force Russia to attend the Peace Summit and be willing to end the war.

So, the Plan consists of five points and three secret annexes.

The first point is geopolitical.

The second and third points – they are military.

The fourth point is economic.

The fifth point of the Victory Plan is security-related.

The points are scheduled over time. Very specifically. The first four are for wartime, to bring it to an end. The fifth point is for the post-war period, to guarantee security.

The first point is an invitation to NATO. Right now.

We are a democratic nation that has proven capable of defending the Euro-Atlantic region and our shared way of life – of other democratic nations.

For decades, Russia has exploited geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, specifically the fact that Ukraine is not a NATO member. And this is what tempted Russia to encroach on our security. And now, the fact that Ukraine is invited to join NATO could become truly fundamental for peace.

We understand that NATO membership is a matter for the future, not the present.

But Putin must see that his geopolitical calculations are failing.

The Russian people must feel this – that their "tsar" has lost geopolitically to the world.

And I want to thank all our partners who support the idea that an invitation for Ukraine to NATO now, with membership later, strengthens not just us, but strengthens all of us.

The invitation is a powerful decision that requires nothing but determination.

And today, the invitation symbolizes much more than just NATO.

For us, determination on the NATO issue for Ukraine also means the inevitability of European integration for Ukraine and the fact that there is no alternative to democracy in Ukraine.

And that is why this is the initial point of the Victory Plan. The first and very important. The sign of determination. This is what the invitation is. The unconditional invitation right now.

This means certainty about how our partners truly see the place of all of us, Ukraine's place in the security architecture.

I urge all of you to work for the determination of our partners to recognize Ukraine as an equal in Europe’s security architecture.

The second point is defense.

This is an irreversible strengthening of Ukraine’s defense against the aggressor.

It is realistic to defend our positions on the battlefield while also ensuring that the war is brought back to Russia’s territory; so that Russians feel what war is, and despite Russian propaganda begin to turn their hatred against the Kremlin.

We are not naive. Ukraine does not and will not believe that the majority of Russians will truly realize the depth of their state's moral decline.

But they must feel the decline of the Russian army.

And this will be the defeat of their war ideology.

There is a clear list of weapons that can support such strength of our warriors. And thanks to the Kursk operation, we have seen that Putin does not have enough forces to hold on when we push, and we push really hard.

Therefore, the keys to implementing this second point of the Victory Plan are:

  • successful continuation of the operations of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine in the defined areas of the enemy's territory in order to prevent buffer zones on our land;

  • irreversible strengthening of the positions of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine and destruction of the Russian Federation's offensive potential in the occupied territory of Ukraine;

  • next is assistance from our partners in manning our reserve brigades for the Armed Forces of Ukraine;

  • bringing Ukraine's air defense system to a level sufficient, really sufficient, to protect our cities and villages from Russian missiles and enemy drones, and joint defense operations with our neighbors in Europe to shoot down Russian missiles and drones within the range of the partners' air shields;

  • as well as expanding operations involving our Ukrainian missiles and drones and investing in increasing their production in Ukraine;

  • lifting our partner's restrictions on the use of long-range weapons on all the territory of Ukraine occupied by Russia and on the territory of Russia – on enemy military infrastructure facilities, and providing Ukraine with appropriate long-range capabilities – missiles, drones and other means of destruction;

  • providing Ukraine with real-time satellite data and data obtained through other intelligence means.

On each of the sub-points of our Victory Plan's defense point, Ukraine provides partners with a clear justification, all the details – what exactly are our goals, how we are achieving them, and to what extent will this reduce Russia's ability to continue this war.

The defense point of the Plan has a secret annex, and it is accessible only to those partners who have the appropriate military assistance capabilities.

The third point of the Victory Plan is a point called deterrence.

It also has a corresponding secret annex. The United States, the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany have already received it.

It will also be received by some other states, which can fill this very well-known to the world concept of deterrence with content for Ukraine.

The Russian leadership acts aggressively only when it is convinced that it will not receive an adequate destructive response.

When Russia knows that the response will come, and understands what kind of response it will be, they choose negotiations and stable coexistence even with strategic adversaries. And we know these examples.

Thanks to this very point, deterring Russia from aggression is possible both in relation to Ukraine and in relation to Europe as a whole.

Ukraine offers to deploy a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its territory that will be sufficient to protect Ukraine from any military threat posed by Russia and that will limit, limit as much as possible, the variability of Russia's actions to such prospects: either join an honest diplomatic process to bring the war to a just end, or certainly lose the ability to continue an aggressive war as a result of Ukraine's use of the provided deterrence package, according to Russia's defined military objectives.

In other words, the deterrence package is the fact that Russia is either going into diplomacy or going... to lose its war machine.

Peace through strength.

It works equally well on both sides of the Atlantic. And this point can be ensured, in particular, by means of funding, and these details have also been passed on, by means of funding within the framework of the security agreements already concluded with our partners and the defined volumes of financial support.

Point four – strategic economic potential.

Ukraine is rich in natural resources, including critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars. These include uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and other strategic and strategically valuable resources that will strengthen either Russia and its allies or Ukraine and the democratic world in global competition.

The deposits of critical resources in Ukraine, along with Ukraine's globally important energy and food production potential, are among the key predatory objectives of the Russian Federation in this war.

And this is our opportunity for growth.

Economic growth of Ukrainians, of our entire state. Economic strengthening of the European Union – for the sake of Europe's economic and, in many ways, security autonomy. And this is an opportunity for the United States and our partners in the G-7 to work with Ukraine – the ally that can provide a return on investment.

The economic point of our strategy has a secret annex, which is shared only with certain partners.

Ukraine offers the United States, together with selected partners, including the European Union, of which Ukraine will be a part, and other partners in the world who are our partners, to conclude a special agreement on joint protection of critical resources available in Ukraine, joint investment and use of the corresponding economic potential.

This is also peace through strength. Economic strength.

This is an agreement that will organically complement and strengthen the existing system of economic pressure on Russia, namely, all existing sanctions against the Russian Federation, oil price restrictions, export restrictions to Russia, and other pressure measures.

Russia's allies in the world must realize, know, and see that this regime has no economic future.

And the fifth point. The fifth point is designed for the post-war period.

After this war, Ukraine will have one of the most experienced and largest military contingents. And these are people, real people – our warriors, who will have real experience of modern warfare, successful experience of using Western weapons and diverse experience of interaction, of course, with our partners, with NATO troops.

This Ukrainian experience should be used to strengthen the defense of the entire Alliance and ensure security in Europe.

This is a worthy mission for our heroes.

We envisage, if our partners agree, replacing certain military contingents of the United States Armed Forces stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units. After the war.

Ukrainians have proven that they can be the force that Russian evil cannot overcome.

And I am grateful to every partner. There are already many signals of support for this, they like this idea very much. Thank you. To everyone with whom we have discussed this perspective for the post-war period, I am grateful for your respect for Ukrainians and our ability to stand irresistibly in alliance with our partners.


This is just an excerpt from the speech, the whole thing, in English, can be found here.

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/haj-nasha-spilna-robota-za-planom-peremogi-yaknajshvidshe-ob-93849