November 29 2024

Update:
A commission from Ukraine's Ministry of Strategic Industries and Ministry of Defense found that 24,000 defective 120-mm mortar shells were supplied to the military. 100,000 shells were seized after complaints from the Logistics Command and frontline troops. The manufacturer is replacing the faulty shells. The defective shells represent less than 1% of the total production for the year.  Some of the defective mines had poor quality gunpowder that was purchased from abroad, some had inappropriate fuzes that wouldn’t detonate on impact, and some shells were the incorrect diameter, some being 0.6-0.75 mm off from the proper size. Ukraine can produce its own mortar shells for 40% cheaper than they can be made abroad.

Ukrainian drones attacked the Atlas plant in Russia's Rostov region, causing at least 2 tanks to catch fire. Russia claimed they intercepted of 30 drones. Over 100 firefighters and more than 30 pieces of equipment were deployed to fight the fire. The plant continues to burn as of the time of writing. This is the second attack on the facility, it was hit in August and multiple tanks caught fire. It was reported at the time that about 8 tanks were destroyed and others sustained damage.


On November 29, explosions were reported in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia. Rostov Oblast Governor Yuri Slyusar reported a significant drone attack, claiming 30 drones were shot down. The extent of the damage remains unclear at the time of writing. There were pictures of white smoke in the area, but it is hard to determine the true source. There are unconfirmed reports that the refinery in Tuapse was targeted, as well as reports that a ship docked there was struck. The ship appears to be a grain ship, which would be an unusual, though not necessarily illegitimate target for Ukraine. Additionally, there are unconfirmed reports that a large Russian landing ship named Pyotr Morgunov was hit, with some rumors claiming that it sunk. This is also unconfirmed.


The Netherlands provided Ukraine with 3 Patriot battery launchers. The provision of these launchers was announced in September. The Netherlands tried to create a coalition of countries who would each donate components of a Patriot system, and cumulatively, all donate a full system. The Netherlands was unable to find partners to take part in this plan. The Dutch also donated an AN/MPQ-53 radar as part of this plan.


Russian soldiers shot and killed five Ukrainian prisoners of war near Novodarivka in the Zaporizhzhia region on November 24, 2024. Six Ukrainian soldiers were captured, and five were executed while unarmed and lying down on the ground. The Russian unit responsible for the murders has been identified. The murder was captured on video. A criminal case has been opened for war crimes. The rate at which Russia has been killing POWs has been accelerating.


Ukraine published a video showing the destruction of a Zoopark counterbattery radar near Avdiivka.


Ukraine published a video showing the destruction of a Buk-M3 radar in the Zaporizhzhia region.


A video that was published showed a complicated twisty mess of smoke trails rising up into the air. The video was geolocated to Crimea. The location of the smoke was northwest of Simferopol and Southwest of Hvardiis’ke. There are currently unconfirmed claims that this was an S-400 air defense system that was destroyed. It seems likely that at the very least, ammunition for an air defense system was destroyed, as the complex twisting smoke trails are characteristic of missiles cooking off.


Finnish defense company Summa Defense Ltd will build a drone manufacturing plant in Finland in partnership with Ukrainian companies. The facility will produce aerial, ground, and naval drones for Ukraine, the EU, and NATO countries. The primary goal of the plant is to increase drone production for Ukraine. Mass production is expected to begin in the first half of 2025.


Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov announced that some military aid for Ukraine in 2025 has already been decided upon.

-Baltic countries: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will allocate 0.25% of GDP to support Ukraine
-The United Kingdom: £3 billion annually until 2031
-Denmark: €8.7 billion by 2028. In 2025, military assistance will amount to €2.2 billion, including joint projects and investments under the “Danish model 2.0”
-The EU: at the beginning of the year, Ukraine will receive the second tranche of military aid worth €1.9 billion. These funds will be used to purchase ammunition, air defense systems, missiles, and support for Ukraine’s defense industry
-NATO: up to €500 million as part of the Alliance’s Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine for 2025
-The Netherlands: €4 billion in 2024-2026
-Germany: €4 billion in direct military assistance
-Norway: increases support to $2.7 billion
-United States: $5.5 billion in military assistance
-Sweden: $2.5 billion annually

President Zelenskyy has signed Ukraine's 2025 state budget into law, prioritizing defense with $53.714 billion allocated for defense spending, weapons, drones, and equipment. The total budget expenditures for the year will be $86.7 billion, a record high for Ukraine. $10.13 billion is allocated for social spending and welfare, $5 billion is allocated for healthcare, and $4.8 billion has been allocated for education. Over $1.3 billion is allocated for weapons production and defense equipment, and $12 million will be provided as loans for Ukrainian defense companies to boost domestic production. Revenues are expected to total $49.379 billion.


Over 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers who had previously deserted or been considered AWOL have returned to military service in the past month. A new law signed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on November 28 removes the threat of punishment for first-time deserters who voluntarily resume their military service. The returned soldiers are currently being processed, but are only allowed to rejoin specific military units; specifically, they’ll be serving in reserve battalions. When AWOL soldiers return, their unit commanders must accept these soldiers back. Absent soldiers have until January 1, 2025, to return without facing punishment.


On the 28th, the Russians launched a major missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the 11th large missile attack on Ukraine’s energy grid this year. Ukraine's nuclear power plants reduced their electricity production. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported that for the second time in less than two weeks, the Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and South Ukraine NPPs lowered power levels as a precaution. All nine reactors at these plants were affected, and one reactor at Rivne NPP was disconnected from the grid. The Khmelnytskyi plant lost connection to 2 power lines but continued receiving power from external sources.


Russia is reportedly bypassing US sanctions by importing American-made equipment through intermediary countries such as Turkey, China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, and the Maldives, according to a report by The Insider. The Insider tracked waterjet metal cutting machines and their spare parts. These machines have been imported into Russia through companies like Yinuo Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. in Hong Kong, UAE-based Gartech FZE, Turkish company Zarif Group Dis Ticaret A.S., and the Chinese company Huizhou Speed Waterjet Technology Co., Ltd.


On Nov. 28, Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine using 132 drones. Ukraine shot down 88 of the drones. 41 drones were “lost” and one drone returned to Russia. The attack caused damage to infrastructure, vehicles, private homes, and apartment buildings, resulting in casualties. A shahed strike hit a children's medical clinic in Kyiv's Dnipro district, causing significant damage and injuring a security guard. Photos show broken windows, damaged entrance doors, and shrapnel damage on the building’s walls. A small fire broke out but was extinguished. Nearby residential buildings were also damaged. Windows and pavement were damaged. The injured guard was hospitalized because of a closed fracture of his left femur.

On the night of the 29-30, Russia attacked Ukraine with 10 drones; 8 were shot down, 1 was “lost” and one flew to the occupied territories.


Ukraine’s GUR reports that Military intelligence units on November 28-29 destroyed four radar systems in Crimea.

From the GUR:

"On November 29, 2024, as a result of an operation by the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, successful strikes were made on costly Russian radar systems in the temporarily occupied Crimea"

The report states that 1 39N6 "Kasta-2E2" radar system and 2 48Ya6-K1 "Podlet" radar systems were destroyed. An additional 48Ya6-K1 "Podlet" was destroyed on November 28 near the settlement of Kotovske in the western part of the peninsula.


Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade reported that they damaged a North Korean Bulsae-4 self-propelled ATGM in the Kharkiv region.


Governor Roman Mrochko reported on Nov. 29 that Kherson's administrative center was still without power after a Russian attack on the city on November 28. Repairs are underway. Mrochko said that Kherson could be without electricity for several days in the worst-case scenario.

As of Nov. 29, parts of Ukraine’s energy system remained offline. Damage to energy infrastructure occurred in cities like Rivne, Zhytomyr, Lutsk, Mykolaiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn, Lviv, and Sumy. Despite repair attempts, Ukraine still faces significant power shortages, with hourly blackouts for residents and power limits for businesses throughout Nov. 29. Mykolaiv faced more than 30 hours of darkness. Some places are also without running water. Additionally, bad weather left 14 settlements without power, including 11 in Chernihiv and three in Volyn oblasts.    


A Eurobarometer survey conducted from October 10-November 5 found that most EU citizens support Ukraine. 87% support providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, 71% approve of sanctions against Russia, 68% back financial aid to Ukraine, 60% support granting Ukraine EU candidate status, 58% agree with providing military aid, 31% view Russia's war as the most serious EU issue, migration is at 28%, 76% believe Russia's invasion threatens EU security, 33% say Security and defense are the EU's top priorities, followed by migration, economy, climate, and healthcare and 44% think ensuring peace and stability will make their lives better.


According to Russian economist Alexander Lipsitz, some Russian officials believe that widespread bankruptcies will actually benefit the economy. They think businesses failing will make room for new, better, more agile, and more intelligent businesses, This is a flawed idea because Russia's economy is heavily controlled by the state, meaning there's no room for new, more efficient companies to rise to prominence on their own merits. Private investors won't risk investing in bankrupt companies to stabilize them. Lipsitz says that Russia is likely to face a decline similar to what happened in the 1990s.


Since October 2024, North Korea has transferred over 100 artillery systems and 100 KN-23/24 ballistic missiles to Russia, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence. The artillery includes approximately 60 170-mm M-1989 Koksan self-propelled systems and 240-mm M-1991 MLRS systems, which resemble Uragan or Tornado MLRSeseses. North Korea has also supplied Russia with around 5 million large-caliber artillery shells. The North Korean KN-23/24 missiles are essentially Iskander missiles. A US official reported that North Korea is preparing to transfer more ballistic missiles to Russia.


On Nov. 29, Ukraine repatriated the bodies of 502 fallen soldiers, including 397 from Donetsk, 24 from Luhansk, and 64 from Zaporizhzhia. The International Committee of the Red Cross facilitated this process. Work has begun to identify the bodies and return them to their families for proper burial.


Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate carried out an act of sabotage operation in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, on Nov. 28. A video was published showing a Russian SUV full of drones being consumed by flames.


Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that South Korea has provided Ukraine with $100 million in financial aid that will go to benefit Ukraine’s social support sector. This is the first assistance that South Korea has provided to support Ukraine’s regular budgetary spending. South Korea recently declined to provide Ukraine with military aid due to its export laws banning the provision of arms to a country currently at war.


The European Union and Ukraine have signed a memorandum of understanding to provide $19.1 billion in macro-financial assistance. This is part of the $50 billion assistance that will come from the profits of frozen Russian assets.

On November 29 President Zelensky appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi to be the commander of Ukraine's Land Forces, replacing Oleksandr Pavlyuk. Oleh Apostol was appointed as the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.

Drapatyi was a soldier for a long time, known for his role in recapturing Mariupol in 2014 and his leadership during the defense of Kharkiv. Apostol is a veteran and commander of the 95th Air Assault Brigade. His job will be to focus on improving combat readiness, soldier training, and personnel management. The general consensus on Drapatyi seems to be that this is a good choice, that he is a strong, sensible leader, and a man with ample combat experience. There is famous footage from 2014 where a Ukrainian BMP re-enters Mariupol for the first time, hits a barricade like a ramp, and flies a short distance. Drapatyi was the commander of that BMP.

President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine could accept a ceasefire with Russia if it came with NATO membership and security guarantees. He suggested that NATO membership would cover the territories currently under Ukrainian control, allowing Ukraine to reclaim occupied areas diplomatically rather than through combat. Zelenskyy argued that a NATO invitation with full recognition of Ukraine’s official borders could help end the "active phase" of the war. He said that Ukraine needs a stable, inviolable ceasefire to prevent Russia from seizing more territory and killing more Ukrainians. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha wants NATO to invite Ukraine during their next meeting, which takes place next week.


Ukrainian soldier Bakhmutskyy:

“In the Pokrovsk sector, the [Russians] are going everywhere, we have never seen anything like this before - the positions remain under control, but it is very difficult to hold the line. Unfortunately, there are 200 of our brothers, I cannot write who is to blame.
There are 30 [Russians] on one position, there are no words to describe what is happening. There are so many [Russians].”
…
“Chasiv Yar - [Russians] are trying to seize the refractory plant, every day there are assaults and small arms battles near the plant, a large influx of [Russians], our infantrymen are doing everything possible to hold their positions, it is very difficult for them to keep the constant shelling from aircraft and artillery, there are battles for every meter of land.”

Russian soldier mototroopers_205

“Not to lose at any cost.
The 104th Airborne Assault Division is planned to be redeployed to the Kursk region.
Restore the remains of the reputation at any cost.
All efforts to capture the bridgehead on the right bank will fall on the 205th.”

Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine Telegram channel:

“Over the past day, enemy losses amounted to:

- 191 occupants
- 14 units of cars and armored vehicles, of which 3 BBM
- SAM "Buk"
- 5 units of "Shahed-136" type unmanned aerial vehicle
- 7 units of reconnaissance UAVs of the "Supercam" and "Zala" type
- 6 artillery systems and mortars, including Rapier anti-tank gun
- 5 motorcycles
- 3 buggies
- REB and 2 starlinks.

Affected by:
- 6 dugouts
- 5 observed items
- 2 firing positions.

Glory to Ukraine!”

Quote of the Day    

“All brave men love hedgehogs; for he only is brave who has hedgehogs to fight for.”

― Nathanial Hawthorne