Posts
This covers much of the past few days
UPDATE:
The previously reported upon protest at the Medyka-Shehyni
border crossing held by Polish farmers has ended. However, this
suspension may just be temporary if their demands are not met. They
have threatened even larger and longer protests in December. One of
their key complaints is the possibility of a Europe-South America
free-trade agreement. They made their formal demands on the 26th, and
the government has until December 10 to respond.
Ukraine's
Chief of General Staff, Anatolii Barhylevych, reported that Russian
forces are suffering 6-7 times as many casualties in Kursk than
Ukraine is taking. He said that there are over 11,000 North Korean
soldiers in the region, who have already fought against Ukraine and
that these North Korean troops are mostly in general military units
and are disguised as locals from Russia’s far eastern regions.
Russia
launched 188 drones and 4 Iskander-M missiles. Ukraine shot down 76
of the drones, and 95 additional ones were “lost.” A photo was
published of a Gerbera drone that got stuck in a tree. 5 drones flew
towards Belarus, possibly entering Belarusian airspace.
The Belaruski Gayun group,
which monitors military activity in Belarus, reported that between
November 24 and 25, 38 Russian Shahed drones entered Belarusian
airspace during attacks on Ukraine. At least one drone flew to Mozyr,
with some reaching the Gomel district near the Nova Huta border. One
drone traveled from Prypiat to Narovlya and then to Mozyr and was
possibly shot down by Belarusian air defense crews. The Belarusian
Air Force also scrambled jets 4 times in response to these airspace
incursions. 9 of these 38 drones are known to have returned to
Ukrainian airspace after entering Belarus. Many of the drones
discussed here were likely decoys, but exactly how many were is
unknown.
Russian drones damaged a
critical infrastructure facility in Ternopil Oblast on the night of
November 25-26, causing power and water supply disruptions in the
city. There were no casualties. Repairs have begun.
Russia launched
a missile strike on central Kharkiv early on Nov. 25. According to
Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov, the Russians used an S-400 missile system to perpetrate this attack. The strike caused significant damage,
hitting residential courtyards, and over 40 buildings, and setting
three vehicles on fire. By 11:44 a.m., 23 people were reported
injured, with 14 hospitalized. Two of these people needed
neurosurgery to treat their injuries. The victims ranged from 21 to
71 years old.
Russia targeted a
humanitarian aid distribution location in the village of Solonchaky,
Mykolaiv Oblast, with an FPV drone. Five people were injured,
including aid workers and residents.
On November 24, 2024, Ukraine used an
ATACMS missile to attack a Russian S-400 air defense system in the
Kursk region, near the village of Velyke Zhyrovo. The attack
destroyed the 92N6E radar and two launchers and caused casualties
among the S-400 system personnel. The S-400 system had been used for missile
strikes against Ukrainian settlements and was undergoing repairs at
the time of the attack. The Russian government has confirmed the
S-400 was successfully targeted by ATACMS. Photos of the destroyed
equipment have been published.
On November 25, Ukraine
launched ATACMS missiles with cluster warheads, at the Vostochny
military air base in Kursk, Russia. The strike seems to have targeted
an aircraft parking area, which was confirmed by Ukrainian and
Russian sources. Several videos of the attack and subsequent fires
were published, including photographs showing ATACMS debris. One of
these debris photos also revealed the location of a Russian pantsir
air defense system. Russian air defense systems attempted to
intercept the missiles, but at least one hit its target. The full
extent of the damage is unclear. White House National Security
spokesman John Kirby confirmed that Ukraine used ATACMS missiles to
strike targets inside of Kursk Oblast.
On November 25,
Ukrainian kamikaze drones targeted the Kaluganefteprodukt oil depot
in Kaluga, Russia, causing a severe fire. Three drones were
reportedly used in the attack, and Russian air defense units
intercepted two. Russian sources say the wreckage of the drones fell
onto the oil depot causing the fire. NASA’s FIRMS satellites have
confirmed the fire, which appears to have been centered around
storage tanks. Kaluganefteprodukt is a subsidiary of Rosneft. The
number of damaged tanks is unclear; the size of the fire may provide
a hint that several tanks may have been damaged or destroyed. Additionally, there are
reports of damage to the nearby Typhoon instrument-making enterprise.
Reuters reports that
North Korea is expanding the February 11 plant in Hamhung, which
produces the KN-23 ballistic missile Russia uses against Ukraine.
Satellite images from October 2024 show new construction, including
additional manufacturing buildings and additional housing.
CNN reports that in
2024 about 1/3 of the ballistic missiles Russia used to attack
Ukraine were KN-23s. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that
approximately 60 out of 194 ballistic missiles Russia used by
November 23 were North Korean KN-23s. An investigation has revealed
that many components in the KN-23 missiles were made by companies
from countries like the United States, the Netherlands, and the UK.
A
report by the Ukrainian Independent Anti-Corruption
Commission and the Conflict Armament Research organization found over
290 foreign-made electronic parts in the missiles. 75% of these
components were from U.S.-based companies. The KN-23 missile with
very few Korean-made parts, apart from the missile's metal casing.
One analyst joked that you can tell which parts are North Korean
because they are rusty.
The UK has imposed sanctions
on 30 ships of Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers, with half the
ships responsible for transporting $4.3 billion worth of oil and oil
products in the last year alone. According to the UK government, this
brings the number of shadow fleet tankers sanctioned by the UK to 73,
more than any other nation.
Turkey has asked the US to
lift some sanctions on Russia, especially the ones targeting Russian
banks like Gazprombank. The sanctions, introduced on November 21
prevent Turkey from making payments to Russia. Russia supplies over
50% of the natural gas that Turkey imports.
The United States may be
close to an agreement with Ukraine to supply long-range cruise
missiles to Ukraine. Earlier this year there were talks to send the
JASSM cruise missile to Ukraine, but at the time the US wasn’t
allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia. Now that the United
States is allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, JASSM could
open up a large range of targets for Ukraine. The JASSM is stealthy,
has a 450 kg warhead, and has a range of 370-926 km depending on the
variant, much longer than ATACMS. JASSMs are available in much larger
numbers and are still in production. This could cause Russia to push
logistics hundreds of kilometers inside Russian territory, severely
damaging their ability to sustain combat operations and forcing
Russian fighter jets to operate from a much longer range severely
hindering their effectiveness.
Bloomberg reports that the
UK secretly delivered a batch of Storm Shadow missiles a few weeks
ago as Ukraine began to run low on its stocks. They were sent before
the decision to allow long-range strikes into Russian territory. The number of missiles delivered was not released publicly, but some
reports say it was “dozens” of missiles.
As Ukraine deals with
Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure, some European leaders are
reluctant to finance rebuilding the infrastructure that’s owned by
Ukrainian oligarchs. The European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (EBRD) went so far as to say it will not help Ukrainian
groups that are in the hands of local oligarchs, not even in the
current emergency. Because of this, the EBRD does not finance
projects controlled by the energy Monopoly DTEK, owned by Rinat
Achmetov. The leader of the EBRD said that freeing Ukraine of the
influence of oligarchs is important and that these reforms need to be
made to enter the European Union and if compromises are accepted it
could damage Ukraine’s long-term prospects.
Ukrainian energy company
DTEK will receive €62.8 million from the European Commission and
$46.1 million from the US government to restore power facilities
damaged by Russia and to further prepare for the winter season. The
European funding will be used for equipment to restore power capacity
and weatherize plants, while the money from USAID, will help purchase
management systems and transformers. DTEK produced a quarter of
Ukraine's electricity before the war but has lost at least 90% of its
power-generating capacity due to attacks, but repairs have brought
back about 50% of its power generation.
Ukraine’s largest gas
company, UkrGasVydobuvannya, has started production at a newly
discovered field with a daily output of 170,000 cubic meters of gas,
with plans to dig even more wells in the coming months. In 2024, gas
production by UkrGasVydobuvannya and Ukrnafta increased by 6%
UK Minister for
Intergovernmental Relations Pat McFadden said that Russia could
target the UK’s electricity grid using artificial intelligence to
enhance its cyber attacks on the UK’s infrastructure.
Cyprus has announced its
intention to join NATO. The decision was approved of by President
Biden and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The President of
Cyprus discussed this move during a visit to the White House. This
plan faces serious difficulties, such as resolving the conflict on
the island and improving relations between the EU and Turkey. Part of
Cyprus has been under Turkish occupation since 1974 and Turkey views Cyprus
joining NATO as a threat to Turkey’s territorial ambitions on the
island. Cyprus has made 3 requests from the US: the lifting of arms
embargoes, training Cypriot troops in the US, and assistance in
modernizing its military. In particular, they want US assistance in
expanding the Andreas Papandreou military base, which can then be
used to permanently house US forces.
The NATO
Parliamentary Assembly has adopted a resolution calling for increased
military, financial, and humanitarian support for Ukraine, the
provision of long-range missiles, increased sanctions against Russia
and North Korea, and reducing or eliminating the restrictions placed
on Western weapons provided to Ukraine.
NATO
Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer said that while the
Russian army is physically larger than it was before the war, the
quality has decreased significantly, meaning that NATO has a
significant period of time to re-arm and prepare itself for any
future conflict. He also added that the West’s current relationship
with China is similar to the pre-war relationship the West had with
Russia. Depending on crucial goods coming from China will someday be
weaponized by its government.
According to Le
Monde, discussions about deploying Western troops or private military
contractors to Ukraine have started again, due to concerns about the
potential of the US reducing the amount of support it provides under
President-elect Donald Trump. These talks were reportedly held during
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to France. France and
Britain are working on ways to strengthen defense cooperation and to
form a European coalition dedicated to supporting Ukraine. French
President Emmanuel Macron has suggested that Western troops could be
sent to Ukraine if Russia breaches Ukrainian frontlines and Ukraine
asks for help.
It was reported that there
are 6 Tu-160s still in service with the Russian Air Force that used
to belong to Ukraine’s Air Force. These bombers, and over 500
missiles, were transferred to Russia in 1999 to pay off a gas debt of
$275 million. The material transferred to Russia may have been worth
over $2.5 billion. The planes may be being used to strike Ukrainian
targets. The planes and their current air crews were identified by
journalists.
Russian defense company Rostec has announced
the delivery of a new batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers to the Russian
Aerospace Forces. This is the fourth batch of Su-34s delivered in
2024, but it is unknown how large the batch is. Typical batches in
the past have been 2-4 planes. Russia is trying to increase the
production of aircraft to replace lost airframes, but it is believed
that production is still slower than the rate at which planes are
being destroyed.
It was reported that Ukraine
has upgraded its long-range Lyuty drone with a larger warhead. The
standard warhead was 50 kg, with the new warhead weighing 75 kg. This
extra weight will decrease its range, but dramatically increase its
destructive power. The new warheads have already been used at least
once in an attack on an oil refinery in Saratov, Russia. Ukrainian
intelligence sources claim that the Lyuty drones have been used to
attack targets up to 2,000 km away.
The Russians have adapted at
least 1 Yak 12.7 four-barreled minigun for anti-drone usage. The gun
has a rate of fire of 4,000-5,000 rounds per minute and fires the
Soviet 12.7mm round. A video of this gun shows it mounted on a
vehicle with a collimator sight and a thermal imaging camera. The
video shows them firing in very small bursts, possibly to try to
manage the excessive recoil and/or prevent the gun from overheating.
A DHL Boeing 737-400 cargo
plane crashed in Vilnius on November 25, killing one crew member and
hospitalized three others. The plane crashed into a residential
building near the airport, and while initial investigations suggest
technical issues or human error, officials have not ruled out the
possibility of terrorism or Russian involvement.
Estonian Defence Minister
Hanno Pevkur called for increased investment in Ukraine’s defense
industry. He pointed out it can produce $30 billion worth of military
equipment annually but only has the funding to produce $15 billion
worth of equipment. Pevkur said that Ukraine produces six to seven
times more howitzers annually than France.
The European Commission is
preparing to provide Ukraine with another tranche of funds generated
by the interest on frozen Russian assets. This will be the second
tranche of such funding. The first tranche of €1.5 billion was
provided in July and this second tranche is expected to be the same
size. €1 billion is reportedly going to be directed towards
Ukraine’s defense industry, making it easier for Ukraine to produce
exactly what it needs while stimulating Ukraine’s economy.
German Defense
Minister Boris Pistorius announced that the EU will increase military
support for Ukraine. Pistorius announced this after a meeting with
defense ministers from the UK, France, Italy, and Poland. The
European push for greater support is inspired by fears that US aid
might decrease during the Trump administration. Pistorius stated the
goal was strengthening Ukraine's position on the battlefield and at
the negotiation table. Additionally, NATO will take over the
coordination of Western military aid to Ukraine starting in January,
and there will potentially be another Ukraine Defense Contact Group
meeting planned for December.
Germany will
deliver two IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine by the end of 2024,
including one SLM and SLS system.
The
Drone Coalition, comprising 17 countries and led by Latvia and the
United Kingdom, will have allocated a total of €1.8 billion in
support of Ukraine by the end of 2024, with a focus on expanding
drone production both in Ukraine and the West.
Russian troops executed five
Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Pokrovsk region of Donetsk after
capturing them. After an attack near the village of Petrivka, the
Ukrainian soldiers were forced to retreat and take shelter in a
private house. Once surrounded, they were taken prisoner, ordered to
lie on the ground, and shot by Russian troops. There is a video of
these murders. The Donetsk Regional Prosecutor’s Office has
initiated a war crime investigation.
The Commander-in-Chief of
the Armed Forces of Ukraine has directed all brigade commanders to
establish full-time recruiting units within their active military
units. This decision aims to streamline the recruitment process,
provide better support to volunteers during mobilization, and bypass
territorial recruitment centers.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of
Ukraine liberated the village of Kopanky in the Kharkiv region from
Russian forces, capturing seven soldiers from the 1st Tank Army. Most
of the prisoners were mobilized convicts. Many were facing criminal
charges for violent crimes or drug trafficking.
Ihor Protokovylo, a member
of the Kakhovka City Council, has been sentenced to 12 years in a
high-security prison for "espionage" by a Russian-installed
“court” in the occupied portion of Kherson Oblast. Protokovylo
was abducted by Russian forces in spring 2022 and accused of using a
messaging app to share information about Russian military units with
Ukraine's Security Service.
Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andriuschenko, reported that there were HIMARS strikes on Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Andriuschenko:
The Rozivka district of occupied Zaporizhzhia received greetings, and judging by the repeated detonation, it has gotten rid of an ammunition depot and a certain number of personnel.
…
Attack on the Rozivka / Polohy ammunition depots
Details:
- 7 critically and moderately injured individuals were delivered to the hospital in Nikolske, Mariupol district, from the site of the attack in Polohy district overnight.
- 5 lightly injured individuals were brought to the hospital in Mariupol from the same area.
- We are verifying hospitalization data for Polohy and Rozivka.
-The detonations lasted from 20:00 (the first strike) until 21:40, with a total of two direct hits.
- The flames and fire continued until 23:00. We are determining whether the fire was contained or extinguished naturally.
Russian milblogger Russian Aviation aka svvaul10 discussed the strikes on the airbase in Kursk, and, intriguingly mentioned another attack that went unreported/under-reported
svvaul10:
"Tonight was restless as the enemy launched an attack in the Kursk region. The Ukrainians struck with ATACMS rockets at an airfield in Kursk. There are reports of equipment damage and injuries.
In Maikop, Republic of Adygea, there was an attack on the Khanskaya airfield. Air defense shot down something large, and drones did not reach the airfield. Personnel were unharmed, and equipment was also intact."
Ukrainian milblogger ZSUwar
provided a summary of missile attacks on Russian assets.
Zsuwar:
“This week, strikes included only missiles:
November 19: ATACMS successfully hit the 67th GRAU arsenal in Karachev, Bryansk region.
November 21: Storm Shadow missiles successfully struck the command bunker of the "Kursk" group in Mariyno, Kursk region.
November 23: ATACMS destroyed a radar and 2 launchers from the S-400 system near the village of Velikoye Zhirovo in Kursk region.
November 25: ATACMS attacked the "Khalino" airfield and S-400 positions near Kursk.
This week, drone strikes included:
November 19: The "EFKO" oil and fat plant in Alekseevka, Belgorod region, was hit.
November 20: The 13th GRAU arsenal in the Novgorod region was successfully struck.
Ukrainian
soldier/milblogger Bakhmutskyy
“Chasiv Yar - They have not yet entered the plant, our guys are holding the defense there, our art and FPV are also working, so they are trying to push through our defense, 2-4 [Russians] are coming...no need to draw any conclusions in advance. Yes, this is a war and sometimes you need to step back to save military lives, but the plant is holding on, it is ours.”
…
The outskirts of
Klishchiyivka - there was an assault on our positions, four assholes
broke through under the cover of artillery, 3 were killed and one got lost
somewhere. They didn't reach the water, but with each time they get
closer and closer…”
Quote of the Day:
“I have always considered David Hume as approaching as nearly the idea of a perfectly wise and virtuous hedgehog as perhaps the nature of human frailty will allow.”
― Adam Smith