December 20 2024

Putin stated that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine should have started sooner in the year. He also said that Russia should have spent more time preparing for the invasion. He also tried claiming that Russia’s hand was forced, and that “The Crimean events [when Russia invaded Crimea] was spontaneous, and the events of 2022 began without preparation. Why did it happen? Because we couldn’t afford to remain passive and patient, waiting for the situation to worsen for us.” Putin also confirmed that Viktor Orban proposed a “Christmas truce” between Ukraine and Russia that was intended to last for “a day or two,” adding that there can be no harm from that, because “the enemy” can’t do anything in 2-3 days. It also raises the question of which 1-2 or 2-3 days, as Ukraine and Russia celebrate Christmas at different times. Putin claims that Orban has made such offers before and Russia has agreed to them but they were rejected by Ukraine.


Putin also admitted that Russia’s economy is facing troubles, claiming that it is facing issues of inflation and “overheating.” Putin said that he spoke to Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina who said that inflation would reach 9.2-9.3% this year, but the bank itself predicted it would reach 8.5%. He said that due to the Central Bank's policies, the economy would cool next year and the growth rate would only be in the 2-2.5% range, whereas it reached 4% in 2024. He described this as “a soft landing.” The Central bank is planning to raise its policy rates to 23% on Friday. Nabiullina is facing harsh criticism from Russia’s political class as being incompetent and responsible for Russia’s financial difficulties, while outside of Russia, she is broadly considered to be one of the few truly competent high-ranking government officials.


The Economist published an article titled “Ukraine is winning the economic war against Russia.”
In that article, the Economist says that Ukraine's economy is outperforming Russia's in several areas for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. However, Ukraine’s economy is only 75% the size it was in 2021. Ukraine's GDP is projected to grow by 4% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. Its currency is stable and interest rates are relatively low at 13.5%, the lowest they’ve been in 30 months, while Russia’s interest rates have risen to 23%. The Economist predicts Russia’s GDP growth will only be 0.5-1.5% in 2025. Much of Ukraine’s economic recovery is attributed to Ukraine re-opening the Black Sea grain corridor, which it uses to export not only agricultural products but also metals and minerals, Ukraine’s second leading export.

Companies are working to adapt to the realities of war. The article references Mykhailo Travetsky, a dairy farmer whose farm was on the front lines in the early days of the war. As power and refrigeration capacity were damaged, he switched from producing milk to making soured milk products and cheeses with long shelf lives. Travetsky said he made a small profit for the first time since starting farming and is thinking of starting to make parmesan cheese, but he doesn’t have power for 12 hours of the day.

Some companies have relocated to the safer Western regions of the country that suffer fewer drone and missile strikes. Industrial parks have also been built in these regions.

Due to attacks on Ukraine’s power generation and transmission system, Ukraine has lost roughly half of its power-generating capacity, about 18 gigawatts. The constant attacks on Ukraine’s power grid have forced its businesses to look to alternative power sources like diesel generators, wind, and solar power. Some food producers ferment food waste to produce biogas that is used to power their operations. Some mid-sized and larger farms have their own natural gas plants. Ukraine has also increased its energy resiliency by increasing the amount of power it can import from neighboring countries. In December it expanded its ability to import energy from the EU to 2.1GW daily.

Ukraine is facing a significant labor shortage due to mobilization, migration, and war, with the workforce shrinking by over 20% since 2022. Job openings have increased, but each vacancy receives few applications, and wages are rising. The economy and defense ministries are struggling to balance their manpower needs; critical industries can only protect half of their workers from being sent to the front, and hiring more women is complicated by migration and wartime impacts.

There is more to it, but overall it is a great read.
(article without paywall here: https://archive.ph/LuBhr)


Denmark is preparing its 23rd military aid package for Ukraine. The package is valued at 281.5 million euros and will focus on strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses and F-16 capabilities. Earlier this month, it was announced that Denmark and Sweden will also transfer 40 CV90 IFVs to Ukraine.


President Zelenskyy, at a press conference in Brussels, has confirmed that Russian forces are burning the faces of dead North Korean troops to obscure their identities and that there are more than 12,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia. North Korean troops are additionally given Russian passports to make them appear to be Russians. He added that no North Koreans have surrendered thus far.


Zelenskyy also spoke about the idea of lowering the conscription age. He said that Ukraine needs more equipment before it can really be considered. “If a person is standing in front of you without a weapon, what difference does it make if that person is 20 years old or 30? There is no difference.”


Ukraine has asked the US for the licenses to produce Patriot air defense systems domestically. Despite multiple requests, Ukraine has not yet received approval to produce them in Ukraine. Zelenskyy says he has never been told “no” when he requested the licenses, but he has also never been told yes. He says one of the major reasons they want the licenses for domestic production is the delayed deliveries from ally/partner nations. He says he has been told production capacity is too low. The manufacturers of air defense systems are struggling to meet demands from customers. Zelenskyy wants to use frozen Russian assets to fund the local production of air defense systems and other weapons. Transferring Patriot production technology to Ukraine would require a complex set of agreements and permits and no other country has ever received production licenses before. Other countries have received licenses to produce Patriot missiles, but never the systems themselves.


Dmytro Lubinets, the Ukrainian Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights said that the number of POWS that Russia has executed in 2024 is almost double the total of POWs they executed in the previous two years.

Lubinets:

“As of now, 177 cases of Ukrainian prisoners of war being executed have been confirmed over the three years of the full-scale war. The situation has deteriorated dramatically, as 109 executions have been officially confirmed in 2024 alone."

2 explosions were reported near the Russian naval base in Murmansk. A video has been published showing one of the explosions, it seems to be fairly sizable. The region is also home to several air defense systems, ammo depots, electronic warfare systems, and airfields. The explosion was not picked up on seismographs.

Andrii Kovalenko Head of The Center for Countering Disinformation:

"Murmansk is home to command centers, ammunition depots, repair docks, and fleet control centers. It is also the place of testing, particularly for Zircon missiles. The direct distance from Murmansk to Ukraine is approximately 2,000 kilometers.

The Northern Fleet ships are carriers of Kalibr missiles, which Russia has been launching against Ukraine during the war. The Russian Northern Fleet also carries out reconnaissance and countermeasures against NATO forces with an eye to the Arctic."

Russia lost a Ka-52 attack helicopter. The Russians claim it was shot down by friendly fire, but sometimes they do that even when an aircraft is downed by Ukraine. Some reports suggest that one or both of the pilots died.


Luke Pollard, UK Deputy Secretary of State for Defence told the UK’s parliament that Russia has suffered over 750,000 dead and wounded in the war, and within 6 months, that total could hit 1 million. He also said that the members of the Maritime Coalition and the Drone Coalition will begin to supply Ukraine with drones of various models in the tens of thousands starting in January.


Russian sources have published high-resolution satellite imagery of the damage caused to the Yuzhmash weapons factory in Dnipro by the Oreshnik IRBM. The missile strike occurred on November 21. The satellite imagery shows minor-to-moderate damage to about 20 buildings at the facility. One or two of the buildings suffered pretty significant damage. The warhead was not armed with explosives, instead relying on the speed and mass of the warheads to deal the damage. More or less all of the buildings seem repairable, most would probably not need to cease production if they were still being used to manufacture anything. Russian sources have asserted the Neptune missile was built there, but they, specifically Putin, also have asserted that the building was “reduced to fragments, elementary particles, essentially turned to dust.” A cousin of the Oreshnik, the YARS ICBM, was estimated to cost $30 million back in 2011.


Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence reported that, according to Russian estimates, Russia lost up to 98,000 mobilized soldiers in Ukraine between September 2022 and October 2024, excluding contract soldiers, conscripts, mercenaries, and other Russian units.

Mobilized troop losses broken down by army groups:

Tsentr (Centre) group: 21,710 soldiers;

Zapad (West) group: 20,155 soldiers;

Vostok (East) group: 16,770 soldiers;

Yug (South) group: 16,465 soldiers;

Dnepr (Dnipro) group: 10,449 soldiers;

Russian Armed Forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 10,120 soldiers;

the Sever (North) troop grouping: 2,972 soldiers.


On 18 December, Ukraine's Achilles drone unit, the 1st Presidential Brigade Burevii, and the 77th Airmobile Brigade, successfully repelled a Russian attack near the Oskil River. Russia reportedly lost 21 pieces of military equipment, including 2 T-80 tanks and 9 Infantry Fighting Vehicles that were destroyed outright, and 1 MT-LB and 1 Armoured Personnel Carrier, along with 8 more Infantry Fighting Vehicles were damaged.


The UK announced that it will provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth US$286 million. The contents of the package include; $115 million for naval equipment, $85 million for air defense, $32.5 million for support and spare parts for systems previously delivered to Ukraine, and $48.7 million to provide more than 1000 counter-drone electronic warfare systems and for joint procurement of respirators and equipment to enhance the protective capability of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. The UK government also offered to train more Ukrainian soldiers.


Ukrainian weapons manufacturer, Vyryi Drone, has presented the first fully, Ukrainian-made FPV drones, assembled using only parts made exclusively in Ukraine. The sample presented was a fully localized 10-inch FPV attack drone. The motors, propellers, camera, signal transmitter and receiver, as well as the flight controller and speed controller were made in Ukraine. The flight and speed controllers were developed by the company and manufactured in Ukraine. The company started to try to localize production back in 2023 to move away from Chinese components, and by the middle of this year, they’re already reached 70%, thanks to new Ukrainian manufacturers of thermal imaging cameras, which the company Odd Systems started production in October of this year, and video transmitters, they were able to reach 100%, although one component, neodymium magnets, come from China as they produce over 90% of the world supply and it would be impossible to avoid. The developers at Vyryi Drone emphasized that a drone produced in Ukraine with the needs of the military in mind will always be better than drones made up of imported parts.

Battlefield Reports. Reported posted by Muchnoy Jugend, Officer Alex, Bakhmut Demon, Petrenko_IHS, Stanislav Osman

Kupyansko-Borovskoye direction:

• On the western bank of the Oskol River, the enemy continues attacks in the southern part of the settlement of Dvurechnaya in the direction of the center. East of Kruglyakovka, Russian troops advanced along a wide front in an area up to 7.4 km wide to a depth of up to 2.4 km in the direction of the settlements of Zagryzovo and Lozovaya. -Petrenko

• In the Liman direction, Russian infantry units continue attempts to advance in the Terny area. The situation has not changed significantly. - Petrenko

Siverskyi direction:

• On the stable sections of the Siverskyi direction, the enemy is trying to deploy reconnaissance sabotage groups (DRG) to probe the "junctions" of our brigades. These "junctions" are almost always problematic, as two different units rarely have direct communication, which is why the enemy targets these positions, often approaching them under the guise of Ukrainian soldiers. Recently, two such groups were destroyed by "vampires" (anti-sabotage systems). – Stanislav Osman

Kursk Region:

• On the southern flank of the Sudzhansky direction, clashes continue west and north of Plekhovo and in the area of Cherkasskaya Konopelka. On the left flank, Russian troops continue to press in the direction of Sverdlikovo and the Novoivanovka area. In the eastern part of the latter, the enemy has planted its flag. Pressure on Novoivanovka has increased after the enemy has captured the gully located north of Novoivanovskaya. – Petrenko

Pokrovsky direction:

• After the enemy entered Novovasylivka, they quickly deployed their forces to the north, bypassing our fortifications to the west of the Solen River, and came to our flank and rear. Thus, the Podarys were able to approach the outskirts of the village of Vovkove. Now the situation is deteriorating, the Cossacks cannot establish their positions, enemy FPVs are flying and preparing mortars to prevent our soldiers from taking up defense. Fighting also continues for Pishchane and Novyi Trud. The last village will soon come under enemy control! The enemy is also bypassing the village of Zelene from the east and the situation in Dachenske is deteriorating. We are holding Lysivka-Sukhyi Yar, so far without any changes. – Muchnoy Jugend

• In the Pokrovsk direction, the situation remains difficult. The enemy advanced along the railroad east of Shevchenko to a depth of up to 500 meters;

north of Shevchenko in the direction of Peschanoye to a depth of up to 800 meters;

north of Novotroitskoye in an area up to 1.7 km wide;

north of Novoolenovka along a number of forest belts in an area up to 2.2 km wide;

Clashes continue near Peschanoye, Novoolenovka, Ukrainka, Slavyanka and Petropavlovka. -Petrenko

Toretsk:

• In the south of the city, the enemy is attempting to advance with infantry units in the southern part of the Zabalka district. The defense forces managed to repel a number of attacks. In the central part of Toretsk, the situation remains dynamic. Russian troops continue attacks north of the waste heaps of the Tsentralnaya mine, along Svetlaya and Mirnaya streets, and north of the block of multi-story buildings in the direction of the Avangard stadium. – Petrenko

• In the residential areas of Toretsk, the guys managed to give the enemy a hard time and took control of some houses. However, the most difficult situation right now is in the Zabalki area. – Officer Alex

• Unsuccessful rotation for the enemy on the Toretskyi direction, their boys won't be going home. – Stanislav Osman

Kurakhiv direction:

• In the city itself, the front is gradually shifting west to the industrial zone of the city, in the pocket itself there are no places left where you can hold a reliable defense, now the enemy will start pounding the airfield hard and pulling up artillery. If the enemy senses weakness, the city will be hit by planes. The enemy has also reached the village of Ulakly and is holding the highway to Zaporizhia under fire control for about 1 km. Now the enemy is actively pushing through Konstantinopolske and is trying to do everything to reach Yantarnye. Then they will go north to the village of Dachne or will wait for units that will enter Ulakly. In this case, from one half-pocket to another, larger one, our Cossacks will remain and constantly retreat under enemy fire! This is very bad! – Muchnoy Jugend

• The pigs have taken control of Zelenevka! The enemy has raised their imperial flag and is acting freely there, so the main direction of attack will now be Konstantinopol and Ulakly. They will try to encircle Ulakly from the southeast and from the west, splitting the forces into two brigades for two settlements. After that, they plan to move towards Andriivka and cut off to the west at Oleksiivka. The enemy has also taken control of Konstantinopol, where their flag is now flying, and their next move is towards Hihant. Cossacks, hold on, it's going to get hot! – Muchnoy Jugend

• The situation in the Kurakhiv cauldron near Zelenevka has worsened: the enemy has advanced along the tree lines on some sections, moving from 200 meters to 1 km over the past day. This flank is now very important for us. – Officer Alex

• The enemy continues to conduct assault operations in the direction of Kostyantynivka and Shevchenko (Kurakhivska), aiming to create another cauldron. Today, we heavily shelled their infantry with shrapnel and destroyed several pieces of equipment. The guys are working beyond the limits of what seems possible; I never cease to be amazed by their endurance. – Stanislav Osman

• Today, we successfully wiped out the enemy on the Kurakhiv direction. The little guys, all relaxed in the Zelene - Sukhi Yaly area, came out for an infantry assault, and then the shells went: "Good afternoon!" – about 30 bodies were left in the fields. Later, they brought in an MTLB with paratroopers, and after a direct hit, the paratroopers were left there. In general, the day can be summed up with these key points: on the southern flank of the Kurakhiv cauldron, the enemy was shocked, stopped their assault actions, took a pause, and had no success today. – Officer Alex

• In Kurakhovo, the enemy has limited tactical successes to a depth of 200 meters. -Petrenko

• On the southern flank, the enemy has set up flags in Zelenovka and Konstantinopolskoye. -Petrenko

Kramatorsk:

• I don’t know who over the ocean sees peace, but we don’t see it here. Near Kurakhove, we’ve tactically taken up new defensive positions, while the enemy is making attempts to push further in the Pokrovsk area. We shouldn't rely on the idea that they won’t try to advance towards Kramatorsk. – Bakhmut Demon

• I believe it's no coincidence that the guys are starting to focus on the potential Kramatorsk direction. Yes, for now, the defense of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk is holding quite successfully. However, if in the near future the enemy manages to "close" Kurakhove and the entire surrounding pocket, it’s quite likely that the operational-strategic focus will shift to Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. I emphasize that these two directions are now like Yin and Yang – holding one city is almost impossible if you lose the other. – Officer Alex

• In my opinion, attempting to storm the entire agglomeration around Pokrovsk and Myrnograd is much more difficult and less of a priority task when Chasiv Yar and Toretsk are in play, not to mention the Siverskyi direction, which is becoming a dark horse, while the enemy is probing Bilohorivka and applying pressure from the north in the Terny area.

So, we need to be ready that the Kramatorsk direction may not materialize, as this task is still in the hands of operational and strategic command. -Officer Alex

Other observations:

• Muchnoy Jugend: Cheers from our army! Relatives, no matter how difficult it is for us, the goal does not change from this: either we will exhaust the Russian army, or we will die for Ukraine!

• Let's hold our ground, let's stand firm! – Muchnoy Jugend

• Preparation of enemy infantry for FPV drones on the battlefield. It's both funny and sad, yes, it looks somewhat clumsy and amusing because drones don’t exactly fly this way at infantry. But I see a big advantage for the enemy here, and even some edge in their training, because the enemy is preparing their infantry for modern warfare, albeit awkwardly, but at least they’re adapting their training program to contemporary problems and the main threats of the war. – Officer Alex

• Infantry must be ready for modern, and especially the main, threats. It turns out that fighters often hear the sound of an FPV drone for the first time when it’s already coming at them on the battlefield. As for drone defense preparation, I won’t even start because most fighters don’t even know the frequencies on which their EW (electronic warfare) systems should be set to provide at least minimal protection, and some don’t even understand what those control frequencies are. This is something that, in my opinion, should receive much more attention and hours of training in training centers, rather than just "showing the face" as most instructors do while waiting for the training to finish, so they can quickly head home. – Officer Alex

• "You can laugh at the Russians and their crappy drills [training] against FPV drones and drops for a long time, but only if you live in our information environment, where they don’t show how our soldiers die in agony.

So, I regularly review the enemy's operations, read their work chats, and take useful information from them. Analyzing their work gives an understanding that sometimes it's harder to hit the Russians than it is to hit our own.

To increase your chances of survival during a 'drop,' you need to understand how the drop works, drone stabilization, when to stand still and when to move in the trench, how the wind blows, and so on.

The guys who do the 'bomber' tasks won’t lie—some assault groups of the enemy are really prepared for this and are good at shooting down our drones with small arms." -Stanislav Osman

Quote of the Day:

"If there was anything that depresses a hedgehog more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life."

— Terry Pratchett