December 31 2024

The Black Box from Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 which was shot down by Russia is being sent to Brazil for analysis. While Brazil is somewhat of an ally of Russia, the plane that was downed was manufactured by Brazilian company Embraer, and the Azerbaijani government currently does not seem likely to accept findings that are overly sympathetic to Russia.


The Crimean Wind telegram channel reported that the Volgoneft oil takers that sank near the Kerch Strait would be raised from the seafloor. The process of lifting them will begin by March 16 and must be done by June 16.


The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has opened a tender to provide gas power stations for Ukrnafta, Ukraine's largest oil and gas producer. The tender is trying to procure power plants for 2 projects: one for gas piston power plants with a 70 MW capacity to be installed at 3 facilities, and another for modular gas power stations with a 56 MW capacity. The tender also includes the purchase of auxiliary equipment and services. The project is funded by EBRD loans and grants from the Netherlands, US, and Norway. The goal is to help create a distributed generation network, which makes the individual components harder to target, makes successful strikes less impactful, and reduces the number of people affected by attacks on Ukraine’s power transmission network. Applications for the tender will be accepted until January 27, 2025, and all equipment purchased is to be manufactured and installed by the end of 2025.


Ukraine received over €150 million from Denmark, France, and Lithuania to boost its weapons production. Most of the money, €111 million, came from Denmark, with additional funds from France and €10 million from Lithuania. The money will be used to make missiles, long-range drones, and artillery systems in Ukraine.

The US has provided Ukraine with $3.4 billion in budget support. The US has provided more than $30 million of budgetary support since February 2022.

On Monday, the US announced it would provide $2.5 billion in new military aid which includes $1.25 billion in weapons and ammunition from U.S. stockpiles and $1.22 billion from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which lets Ukraine purchase material directly from the U.S. defense industry.


From the Pentagon’s statement:

“This additional assistance, provided under previous drawdowns from Department of Defense stocks, is valued at $1.25 billion. It includes: Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems munitions; air defense munitions; ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition; air-to-ground munitions; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; Tube-launched, Optically guided, Wire-tracked (TOW) missiles; ammunition for crew-served weapons and fragmentation grenades; demolitions equipment and munitions; communication, training, software, clothing and individual equipment; and spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.”

US officials said they would try to use up the remaining $5.6 billion provided by Congress for weapons transfers to Ukraine before Trump's inauguration, but any leftover funds will be available for his administration to use for future arms shipments.

Biden:

“The Department of Defense is in the process of delivering hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of rockets, and hundreds of armored vehicles, which will strengthen Ukraine’s hand as it heads into the winter.”

According to Andrii Melnyk, Ukraine's UN envoy, Ukraine is focusing on securing strong security guarantees rather than immediate NATO membership. While NATO membership remains a long-term goal, Ukraine still needs defense commitments in case of further Russian attacks. Ukraine previously rejected security guarantees instead of NATO membership.


Previously, Slovakia has threatened to decrease its electricity supply to Ukraine if Ukraine stops the flow of Russian gas through its territory. Poland has announced its readiness to increase energy production and supply to Ukraine if Slovakia halts the electricity it supplies to Ukraine. Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said that Ukraine can replace the electricity by importing more from Romania and Poland. The primary effect of cutting off electricity to Ukraine would be to hurt Slovakia’s own economy since Ukraine buys the electricity Slovakia provides. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called Slovakia's threat “unacceptable” and pointed out that the EU is trying to become independent from Russian-supplied energy by 2027.


Ukraine's exports in 2024 grew by 13.4%, reaching $41 billion, with exports increasing by 28.8% to 129.3 million tonnes. Sea exports rose from 54.8 million tonnes in 2023 to 87.2 million tonnes in 2024. Road transport value rose to $14.5 billion. The EU was the recipient of $24.5 billion in exports, followed by China at $2.3 billion and Turkiye at $2.1 billion. Sunflower oil was the largest export at over $5 billion, followed by corn at $4.9 billion, wheat at $3.68 billion, iron ore at $2.75 billion, soybeans at $1.29 billion, sunflower meal at $1 billion and poultry meat at $945 million, and various metal products worth $927.5 million.


Latvia will send over 1,000 “combat drones of various types” to Ukraine. Latvia is also contributing €20 million to the international drone initiative in 2025.


Ukraine successfully brought back 189 people from Russian captivity on Dec. 30, including 2 civilians and dozens of soldiers. The freed soldiers were defenders of Azovstal, the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Snake Island, Mariupol, and various places along the front. Some have been in captivity for 2 and a half years. 87 were members of the Army, 43 were National Guard members, 33 were border guards, and 24 were sailors. So far Ukraine has freed 3,956 individuals from Russian captivity, with 1,358 of them being released this year. Ukraine released 150 Russian soldiers in the swap which the UAE mediated. The UAE has been instrumental in several major prisoner swaps.


Russian media outlet Astra reported that overnight, 68 UAVs were shot down over Russia.

Astra:

“25 UAVs were shot down over the territory of the Bryansk region, 17 over the territory of the Republic of Crimea, 11 over the territory of the Krasnodar region, 10 over the territory of the Smolensk region, two over the territory of the Tver region, and one each over the territories of the Rostov, Kursk, and Kaluga regions.”

Ukraine struck an oil depot in Russia's Yartsevo district, causing explosions and fires. The facility provided petroleum products to Russia’s military. Several videos were published showing raging fires at the facility. The depot’s position between Smolensk and Moscow makes it a major logistical hub. It had been struck previously in May.


Ukraine published a video of a strike on a Russian headquarters in the Zaporizhzhia region. The strike reportedly killed 6 and wounded 3.

Videos were published of a Ukrainian Storm Shadow strike on a Russian train station in Lgov, Kursk. The train station was being used to house Russian and North Korean soldiers. Russian media outlet Astra reported that 8 soldiers were killed and 22 were wounded in the attack. Satellite imagery from 2018 shows the construction of an underground bunker beneath the building that was hit, potentially indicating that high-ranking military men were targeted.


Ukraine's military intelligence successfully used a Magura V5 naval strike drone to shoot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter with an anti-air missile, causing it to crash in the Black Sea near Crimea. This is the first time such an attack has occurred. The drone was equipped with SeeDragon missiles and managed to damage another helicopter, which returned to base. In this same attack, explosions were reported all over Crimea, as aerial drones attacked in waves at the same time. It is unclear what the overall results of this attack were, besides the destruction of the helicopter. There was a photo published showing a fire in Sevastopol Bay. This image may have been from a naval drone exploding. Russian sources report 16 UAVs were shot down and 8 naval drones were destroyed.


Russia has reported that Ukraine used "Peklo" missile drones to target the Druzhba oil pipeline's infrastructure. The attack took place on December 30, 2024, at the Novozybkov oil pumping station in the Bryansk region. While the pipeline itself was not hit, a maintenance facility at the site was partially destroyed. The Peklo missile drones have a range of over 700 km and can fly at speeds up to 700 km/h.


Ukraine’s GUR reported that in December 2024, 9 units of railway rolling stock were destroyed in Russia. The destroyed equipment includes: in the Moscow region, 1 1TE116 diesel locomotive and 2 EP2D electric trains; in the Ryazan region, 2 VL-80 electric locomotives; in the Tyumen region, 1 SM-2 locomotive and 1 AGS-1Sh railcar; in the Rostov region, 1 VL-80 electric locomotive; and in the Sverdlovsk region, 1 UTM-2M diesel locomotive.


President Zelenskyy reported that Russia launched a total of 370 drones, 280 guided bombs, and 80 missiles at Ukraine last week, the lowest amount in several months.


Reuters did an investigation into Chemical companies owned by Russian oligarchs that have been supplying ingredients for explosives used by the Russian military. These companies, including EuroChem, UralChem, Lukoil, and Evraz, have provided over 75% of the chemicals used in explosive production. Despite Western sanctions on the billionaires that own them, these companies have largely avoided major restrictions and continue to import goods and equipment from Western countries.


Quote of the Day:

“If we have just partaken of a hedgehog's wisdom, we go through the streets feeling as if we had been transformed and had become great; for we encounter only people who do not know this wisdom.”

― Friedrich Nietzsche, Human, All Too Human: A Book for Free Spirits