Covers July 4

Russia has begun to supply North Korea with Pantsir air defense systems. Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrlyo Budanov, stated that multiple Pantsirs are already on duty protecting Pyongyang from potential aerial threats.

Ukrainian officials reported that North Korea is tripling the number of soldiers it has deployed to Russia. Ukrainian intelligence stated that North Korea is going to send another 25,000-35.000 more men to Russia. They have already sent 11,000 men to Russia, with about 4,000 being killed already, according to Western intelligence sources. They previously sent an additional 3,000 men to replace these losses. South Korean intelligence previously reported that North Korea may send additional troops to Russia sometime in the July-August time frame. Ukrainian intelligence sources expect these men to be more fully integrated into the Russian military and that they will be used in offensive operations inside Ukraine.

 

A group of Ukrainian teenagers has been repatriated to Ukrainian-controlled territory due to the work of the Bring Kids Back UA program. They spent the past 3 years in occupied territory being taught Russian propaganda in schools, facing intimidation by local officials, and living under the threat of being conscripted into the Russian armed forces. One of the children was hidden by his grandmother the whole time to prevent him from being sent to a Russian school. One of the children was a survivor of the bombing of the Nova Kakhovka Damn.

In June, Ukraine’s military codified the use of more than 120 pieces of military equipment and approved their adoption and use by Ukraine’s armed forces. This equipment includes about 50 types of aerial drones, engineering equipment, drone munitions, and at least 10 ground-based drones. All of this equipment is domestically made, and reportedly, it includes a significant number of fiber-optic drones. Since the start of the year, the Ukrainian military has codified at least 70 models of fiber optic drones.  More than 600 types of weapons have been codified so far this year, compared to the 300 codified in the entirety of 2024. Of the 600 codified so far this year, 270 of them have been aerial drones. That 600 also includes 8 types of armored vehicles and combat modules for them, 30 pieces of engineering equipment, about 36 types of ground drones, and 60 models of electronic warfare systems. 

The US has begun halting arms shipments to Ukraine. The equipment had been previously promised to Ukraine and is stuck in Poland. Reportedly, the cancellation of the arms deliveries was heavily opposed by the military leadership in the US Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. This decision was pushed through by Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby over the objection of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and was done without consulting the State Department. 

Here’s the list of US munitions approved for Ukraine but now being held in Poland.

92 AIM missiles

30 Patriots missiles (PAC3MSE)

8496 155mm Howitzer rounds

142 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles

252 GMLRs missiles

25 Stinger missiles

125 AT-4 grenade launchers.

This is a fairly significant amount of arms, but it does not realistically represent that many days of combat. The amount of cancelled aid may increase over time. Politico reported that Trump’s special envoy is pushing to lift energy sanctions on Russia. There is no consensus in the administration on how to approach this topic. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is pushing to increase US exports to Europe. There are reports that there is dissent in regards to halting the aid, and that some Trump staffers feel Colby overstepped his authority. Yet, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said that the aid was only being stopped temporarily to all countries, except Israel, so that the Trump administration could “review” the US’ stockpiles, and that the Biden administration recklessly provided aid without thought to what would be available for use by America.

Some EU officials worry that the US and Russia are trying to divide Europe and create competing spheres of influence. Russia has engaged in talks about restarting the Nordstream pipeline with backing from US companies. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov praised the suspension of arms deliveries, saying it will help speed up the peace process. 

 

 

Vice President of the Russian state-owned oil company Transneft, Andrei Badalov, died after he fell out of a window in Moscow, as reported by the Russian state-owned news agency TASS. He was found beneath the windows of a home on the Rublyovo-Uspenskoye highway, and according to TASS, it was a suicide. However, his death is another in a string of unexplained deaths of high-profile individuals and executives in the Russian energy sector since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Russian blogger Dosye_Shpiona:

 Strike on the command post of the 8th Army.

On 30.06.2025, a missile strike was launched against the command post of the 8th Army (v/h 33744, Novocherkassk). The strike hit the building of the Institute of Nonferrous Metals in Donetsk.

As a result of the strike:

- 8 dead (including acting army commander);

- 9 wounded;

- 4 missing.

The Czech security information service is going to investigate several companies suspected of supplying equipment to Russian weapon manufacturers. Previously, President Zelenskyy had said that there are eight Czech companies supplying equipment to Russia’s military-industrial complex. The Czech Republic's head of intelligence said that the majority of the transactions in question occurred before the sanctions took place. He added that it would likely not be direct exports to Russia if they occurred after the invasion, because such exports would require a license. He did add, however, that this kind of equipment is possibly being exported to third countries that may then funnel it to Russia, and that the country's intelligence services don’t have the manpower or funding to necessarily track all of these shipments.

On July 4, Ukraine successfully struck a factory that manufactures thermobaric warheads for Russian Shahed drones. The facility targeted was the Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry (NII Prikladnoy Khimii) in Sergiyev Posad. It is run by the state-owned defense company Rostec. A power substation providing energy to this plant was also damaged.

A Ukrainian drone struck the Azov Optical and Mechanical Plant in Rostov Oblast on July 4. The facility manufactures sights, rangefinders, thermal imaging systems, and fire control equipment for Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, ships, and aircraft. According to Andrii Kovalenko, head of the counter-disinformation center at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, this is “where the 'eyes' for Russian armored vehicles are assembled."

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed air defense systems intercepted/destroyed 48 Ukrainian drones on July 4. The ministry said 26 were downed over Rostov Oblast, 12 over Kursk Oblast, 6 over Belgorod Oblast, 3 over Oryol Oblast, and 1 over Lipetsk Oblast.

On the Fourth of July, Ukraine and Russia performed another prisoner exchange. Among those exchanged were wounded and seriously ill soldiers, including some who have been illegally convicted of “crimes“ related to serving in Ukraine’s military. Civilians who had been illegally detained or also part of this exchange. Soldiers under the age of 25 were returned as well. The soldier served in various branches of the Ukrainian military, including the Navy, the Ground Forces, the Territorial Defense Forces, and special operations forces. Members of Ukraine’s National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, and the State Transport Special Service were also included in this exchange. The age range of the exchange soldiers was 20-59. Sergeant and several officers were included in this exchange, as were defenders of Mariupol. The majority of those who are released that spent more than three years in captivity. The number of soldiers exchanged is being kept quiet for now as part of the agreement Ukraine made with Russia in Istanbul.

The Korean government will provide $10 million for infrastructure projects in Ukraine. The program is expected to last. For four years and up to 25 projects may be funded as part of the program.

China’s foreign minister Wang Yi said during a meeting with Kaja Kallas, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, that China cannot allow Russia to lose the war in Ukraine. His concern was that if Russia were defeated, the United States would fully focus its attention on China. China continues to insist that it’s “not a party to this conflict, “ but apparently, China is willing to help keep the Russian war machine operating.

A component from a downed Shahed that was manufactured in China.

A court in Kyiv officially recognized that the same-sex marriage of a Ukrainian diplomat and his partner created a “family,” legally. They got married in the US in 2021 and have lived together since 2013. This overturns the Foreign Ministry's ruling in 2024 that his partner could not travel with him on long-term assignments, stating that they did not meet the definition of a family. 
  

  

According to a report by the Netherlands’ military intelligence agency, the MIVD, Russia is using chemical weapons in Ukraine at an increasing frequency. They will drop gas bombs onto Ukrainian troops, driving them out of shelter in bunkers, making them easier targets for drones in artillery. Previously, the MIVD had confirmed that Russia was using tear gas on the battlefield, but now it has confirmed that Russia is using chloropicrin, a gas powerful enough to kill in confined spaces such as a bunker. The use of Chloropicrin was jointly confirmed by the MIVD, the German intelligence and security agency, AIVD, and the German intelligence service, the BND. There has been difficulty in identifying chemical weapons used in attacks due to the danger of collecting the grenades and the locations of the attacks. Ukraine has been reporting Russia’s use of chloropicrin for years. In May, the US published its report confirming the use of chloropicrin in Ukraine, but they have since removed the report from the US State Department’s website. At least 3 Ukrainian soldiers are known to have died due to Russian gas attacks. Ukraine reports that Russia has used gas in at least 9000 attacks so far. 

Russia launched a massive drone and missile attack against Ukraine using 539 drones and 11 missiles on July 4. Ukraine's Air Force reported that air defenses intercepted 476 drones and 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles. The attack included 539 drones, 1 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 “hypersonic” missile, 6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, and 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles. Over 330 of the drones were Shaheds. The previous record was set on June 29, when Russia launched 537 drones and missiles.

Kyiv was the primary target of the strike. 26 people were injured, and at least one person was killed. Debris fell in five city districts and caused multiple fires. The attack damaged residential buildings, an educational institution, a medical facility, non-residential buildings, vehicles, and warehouses. Ukrainian Railways reported damage to railway tracks within Kyiv. Air quality worsened due to the fires.

Russian drone strikes in Rostov Oblast killed an elderly woman in the village of Dolotinka. The attack caused the collapse of a section of a residential apartment building. Authorities evacuated 20 residents from the damaged structure. In the city of Azov, drone attacks damaged several cars and shattered windows in residential buildings. Debris from one drone fell onto a local stadium.

The attack on Kyiv damaged multiple diplomatic buildings. The Polish embassy's consular section building was damaged in the strike. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski reported that all embassy staff were safe. The building of China's General Consulate in Odesa sustained minor damage during the overnight attack.

Five ambulances were damaged while responding to calls for injured residents. No medics were reported injured. The attack also damaged a fire and rescue station, shattering windows and damaging the building's facade. A total of 11 State Emergency Service vehicles were damaged across Kyiv. No State Emergency Service personnel were injured.

In Kyiv's Solomianskyi district, a five-story building was partially destroyed. A fire broke out on the roof of a seven-story building, covering an area of 2,000 square meters. Fires also erupted at a warehouse, an auto repair shop, and a garage cooperative. In the Sviatoshynskyi district, a fire broke out after a missile hit a 14-story residential building. Several cars caught fire. In the Shevchenkivskyi district, a drone strike hit an unoccupied eight-story building, damaging its first floor. Falling debris from enemy drones was recorded in the Darnytskyi and Holosiivskyi districts.

Russia also struck the Fastiv district of Kyiv Oblast. The roof of a multi-story residential building caught fire, along with seven garages. No casualties were reported. Russian forces hit Kryvyi Rih with Shahed drones, striking civilian infrastructure and causing a large fire. At least three people were injured in the attack. Electricity outages were reported in parts of the city.

More than 450 emergency workers and about 100 pieces of State Emergency Service equipment were deployed to respond to the attack's aftermath in Kyiv.

According to the Kyiv City Military Administration, as of July 1, 1,609 residential buildings in Kyiv have been damaged since the full-scale invasion began. The administration stated that 41 multi-apartment residential buildings with significant damage are being restored using the city budget. Repairs on 25 residential buildings have been completed. Restoration work continues on another 16 buildings. 

Russian drone strikes in Rostov Oblast killed an elderly woman in the village of Dolotinka. The attack caused the collapse of a section of a residential apartment building. Authorities evacuated 20 residents from the damaged structure. In the city of Azov, drone attacks damaged several cars and shattered windows in residential buildings. Debris from one drone fell onto a local stadium.

According to UNICEF, Ukrainian children are in increasing danger from Russian drone and missile attacks. From March through May 2025, 222 children were killed or injured, compared to 73 in the preceding three months. In April alone, 97 children were killed or maimed, the highest amount since June 2022. A strike on a playground in Kryvyi Rih killed nine children in April.

Zelenskyy presented the "Future of Ukraine" award to 11-year-old Jens Fogh Thomsen during a trip to Denmark on July 3. The boy raised over €4,933 by making and selling Easter decorations. He used the funds to purchase school backpacks and supplies for Ukrainian children affected by the war. Jens is the first foreigner to receive this award.

Zelenskyy called for the European Union to create an international program to monitor and restrict dual-use goods being exported to Russia during his Denmark visit. 

Russia became the first country to officially recognize the Taliban’s government on July 3. A new flag was raised above the Afghan embassy in Moscow. The Taliban had been on Russia's list of designated terrorist organizations since 2003. Putin publicly declared the Taliban an ally of Russia on July 5, 2024.

Ukraine exported 60,000 tonnes of grain and “leguminous crops” since the beginning of the 2025/2026 marketing year as of July 4. This represents a significant decrease from the 718,000 tonnes exported over the same time period last year. Wheat exports totaled 25,000 tonnes compared to 245,000 tonnes last year. Corn exports were 34,000 tonnes compared to 468,000 tonnes last year. There were zero Barley exports compared to 3,000 tonnes last year.

Russian economist Vyacheslav Shiryayev stated that dozens of Russian/Russian-occupied regions are facing a debt crisis. He warned that the occupied Donetsk Oblast is headed toward collapse as the coal in the region was intended to be sold to Europe, and that route is closed off. The Donbas region’s steel production was obliterated during the war. Tatarstan's budget deficit will more than double from €172 million to €394 million, leading to a 6-7% deficit. Kemerovo Oblast has begun to borrow money at 25% annual interest rates, after coal production, its primary source of income, began to slow down. Shiryayev stated that without the military-industrial complex, Udmurtia and Chuvashia would be in an economic depression. Officials in Tomsk Oblast said that the region's financial reserves are being drained by having to pay out military contracts. The central Russian government is rejecting funding requests from various Oblasts for things like housing subsidies and expenses incurred from rail transportation. 

Quote of the Day:   

 "A hedgehog plays from the soul. [Hedgehogs are] guitarists who make the guitar truly speak."

    — Prince